This 4-year-old won at Hamilton just 20 days ago (the only other winner at the track this season) and has 3 straight top-three finishes, suggesting sharp form. However, only 1 win from 9 career races (11%) and moderate overall ability mean the recent Hamilton success is more noteworthy than any broader pattern of excellence.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Trainer Quotes
Sep 2025
"He's a very nice horse. He was a Godolphin castoff bought at the sales at the start of the year. We took a chance as he's got a great staying pedigree. He's been a work in progress and a bit lazy at home, but he's progressing well. He ran a great race to finish third in the Glasgow Stakes and was given a mark of 101. Last time he was beaten at long odds-on but he might have bumped into one because the winner looks a very good horse. I've still got faith in our horse. He could be very good. 10-09-25"
Wearing tongue strapWon 2 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Joint favourite at 5.5 with an identical 36% career win rate to El Burhan, Yabher has three straight top-three finishes and returns off 24 days' rest from an unspecified run at Goodwood. The market backs him for good reason, though recent form shows a poor York run 41 days ago, making him vulnerable to El Burhan's sharper preparation.
The youngest in the field at 3 years old with just 8 career races, Evanesco holds a 25% win rate but shows inconsistency (three runs ago was 7th at Ascot). His recent third-place finish at Goodwood and strong partnership with David Egan (40% win rate together) offer promise, but inexperience counts against him in a competitive handicap.
Joint favourite at 5.5 and the standout ground specialist with 2 wins from 5 on slightly soft (40%) plus 3 consecutive top-three finishes including two recent wins at Ripon and Goodwood. This 5-year-old's 91% frame rate is exceptional and she suits the conditions perfectly, making her a live contender despite the longer odds drift.
Best record on this ground (2 from 5)3 straight top-3 finishes
This 4-year-old has never raced on slightly soft ground and brings a poor overall win rate of 18%, though both wins came at Leicester over this exact distance range. The narrow second-place finish at Goodwood 24 days ago shows recent form, but the ground change and lack of experience on soft surfaces work against him here.
The standout record-holder here with 4 wins from 11 races (36%), El Burhan sits just below top-rated Teumessias Fox on the ratings but carries a decisive fitness advantage after running only 15 days ago. His strength on good ground and at this distance (7f-1m sweet spot) combined with recent third-place finish at Southwell makes him the most likely improver in a moderately open race.
Only four career races with zero wins but two placed finishes shows promise without delivery; the recent York run 27 days ago saw him beaten 19.8 lengths, a significant setback. With no proven ability at this level and scarce racing history, he lacks the credentials to trouble the stronger runners.
One of the few course winners (1 from 6 at Hamilton) with a 38% win rate at this exact distance, Elsass has three wins from 14 races overall. Recent form is patchy but the third-place finish at Ripon 34 days ago shows he's competitive; his proven course record and distance suitability make him a genuinely interesting option.
Won 1 of last 5Won here 1 timeLoves this ground (30% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner (50 races, 20% win rate) and a Ripon specialist with four wins there, Spioradalta shows solid recent form with a second-place finish at Ripon 34 days ago. However, the partnership between jockey and trainer is winless in 18 attempts together, and Hamilton is not his track, making him a reliable but unlikely winner.
Fresh (63 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated at 95 with the best record at this trip (3 wins from 15 attempts), this 7-year-old is Kempton's specialist on muddy ground (50% win rate) but has never won on good-to-soft or standard ground. The 63-day absence and recent pulled-up at Ascot are worrying signs, making him a potentially stale favourite despite his course credentials.
Never raced on slightly soft ground and only one win from 9 races (11%), though the 3 straight top-three finishes suggest consistency. The sharp recent form (won at Ayr 47 days ago) is undercut by an 11th-place finish at Hamilton just 10 days ago, indicating possible form reversal in familiar surroundings.
Never raced on slightly soft ground3 straight top-3 finishes
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (66 days off)Won 1 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Twenty-six career races give this 5-year-old experience, but recent form tells a concerning story: 14th at Ascot 66 days ago followed by 8th place 13 days ago. A 19% win rate and poor record on good-to-firm ground suggest he's beyond his best, and the first-time pairing with Shane Gray offers no obvious edge in a field full of sharper rivals.
A massive 330-day absence makes this 5-year-old a question mark with no wins from two career races, both disappointing efforts at top-level tracks. The high rating is theoretical rather than earned, and returning from such a lengthy layoff without a single victory on her record leaves little reason to trust her here despite the attractive odds.
Lightly raced (2 career races)Absent 330 days (longest in field)Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Wearing tongue strapFresh (310 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
A 24% career win rate (6 from 25) is respectable, but this 8-year-old is returning after 310 days off the track and has never won at top-class level despite placing frequently. The long absence combined with struggles on soft ground and right-handed galloping tracks makes him a risky proposition at 85/1.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.