David Nolan

The partnership with trainer David O'Meara is the engine room of Nolan's career. Thirteen wins from 134 rides together — again, around 1 in every 10 — might not sound spectacular on paper, but in practice it means O'Meara trusts Nolan regularly with his horses, and that kind of stable loyalty is the backbone of any successful jockey's season. A busy book of rides from a well-organised yard is worth more than it might first appear.

If there is one track where Nolan genuinely shines, it is Ayr. Five winners from just 19 rides there works out at better than 1 in every 4 races — roughly double his overall rate — and crucially, both of his top-level wins have come at the Scottish circuit. Those are the biggest races he has won in his career so far, and the fact that they both happened at the same venue suggests he has a real affinity with the place, whether it is the layout, the atmosphere, or simply that he gets good horses there on big days.

The one honest note of caution is that his win rate has slipped slightly, from 13 in every 100 rides last season to 10 in every 100 this year. That is not a crisis — plenty of accomplished jockeys operate comfortably at 10 percent across a full season — but it is worth watching. Whether it reflects a tougher book of rides, a dip in form, or simply the natural ebb of a long campaign remains to be seen.

His partnership with Flowstate is also worth keeping an eye on: two wins from five races together is a solid hit rate, and when a jockey and a particular horse click like that, it often means the best performances are still to come.