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Artic Chief was beaten just over a length into third at this course 14 days ago, which is the standout piece of recent form — he was right in the mix at the finish and comes here with that momentum fresh. Seven career races have produced no wins but that near-miss is encouraging, and this is a new jockey-trainer partnership trying to capitalise on the improved form. He is one of the more interesting each-way possibilities at 7/1.

• Placed in 2 of last 3 races

Ten races without a win but Yoursimplythebest was placed twice in three runs earlier this year, including a second at Punchestown beaten two lengths — there is some ability here. However, she was pulled up at Fairyhouse and then beaten nearly 30 lengths at Tramore since those better efforts, and this is a new jockey-trainer pairing riding together for the first time. The form is inconsistent enough to make her difficult to trust.

• Winless from 10 career races

The market favourite and the best win rate in this field — winning roughly 1 in every 9 races — and she arrives here off the back of a win at this very course just two weeks ago. However, that win came on better ground, and she has never won on today's slightly soft conditions in six attempts, which is a serious concern that may explain why her odds have drifted sharply. She carries the second-highest weight in the race, so punters are backing form and course knowledge against a ground record that gives real cause for doubt.

• Best career win rate in field (1 in 9)
• Market favourite (5.0)

Annarubyrose ran here at Downpatrick just two weeks ago and was beaten by just over a length in second place, which is easily her best career effort from six races. Like Scary Askari, she has never raced on today's slightly soft ground, so we don't yet know how she handles it — but she arrives in the best form of her life and that second place is very recent and very relevant. If the ground is no barrier, she has solid claims.

• Never raced on slightly soft ground

Eleven races without a win, but Mercurial Sea ran second at this course just 14 days ago, beaten five lengths — her best recent form and a run that shows she is in decent shape right now. The jockey and trainer have ridden together 16 times without winning, so there is no great partnership momentum behind her. She is competitive without quite being able to finish the job, and this field is wide open enough for her to be a factor.

• Winless from 11 career races

The market favourite at 4/1, and for good reason — this horse won at Punchestown just nine days ago, making it the freshest winner in the field and one arriving in the best possible form. Trainer Gavin Cromwell and jockey Keith Donoghue are a formidable combination, winning together roughly 1 in every 7 races. The only question is whether stepping up so quickly after a win suits, but the market clearly thinks it does.

• Market favourite (4.33)

One win from 14 career races, and that win came over two and a half years ago — this horse has been consistently close without delivering since then, finishing 5th twice in its most recent outings. Crucially, it has never raced on today's slightly soft ground, and its record on any kind of wet surface is poor. Recent form at least shows it is running consistently, but consistent rarely means winning.

• Never raced on slightly soft ground

One win from 15 career races makes this one of the more experienced horses in the field, but experience has not translated into results — three consecutive double-digit finishes tell a damaging story. The one bright spot is a solid record on softer ground in the right conditions, but today's slightly wet surface is where this horse has historically struggled most. Hard to fancy.

• Among the more experienced (15 career races)

The best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 3.5 races — and crucially the only horse here that has already won at this distance of 2m 4f, which makes it stand out from its rivals on paper. Trained by Gordon Elliott, one of jump racing's most powerful yards, and most recent form shows a win at Hexham just over five months ago. The question mark is today's ground, which it has never encountered before.

• Only winner at this distance
• Never raced on slightly soft ground
• Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)

Second in the betting at 6/1 despite never having won in nine career races — the market is backing potential over proof. The five-year-old has finished fourth or fifth in several recent outings, suggesting it can at least compete, but converting that into a win has so far proved impossible. Interesting odds for a horse still searching for its first victory.

• 2nd in the market (6.2)

The clear market favourite, but the officially listed career data here only shows one race with a second-place finish — which sits oddly against the editorial verdict calling it 'highly progressive' with two recent wins. That confidence from the race preview is not matched by what the data shows, and this horse has never raced on today's slightly soft ground. Worth noting that the odds have drifted from 1.1 to 1.8, which in a small field of seven is worth keeping an eye on.

• Never raced on slightly soft ground
• Lightly raced (1 career races)
• Market favourite (1.8)

Two races, zero wins, zero places — Cebu City has yet to show much on the track, and a distant fourth here last time out didn't change that picture. The odds drifting dramatically from 1.1 to 10.0 suggests confidence from those who know the horse has evaporated. Wearing cheekpieces to sharpen focus, but there's little in the form to suggest this is the day things click.

• Never raced on slightly soft ground
• Lightly raced (2 career races)

This is a complete unknown — Everest The Brave has never raced before, so there is no form whatsoever to go on. Trained by Gavin Cromwell, whose jockey wins roughly 1 in 6 races together with him, so there's at least a competent team behind it. At 4.4 in the market, punters seem to think this debut has potential, but with zero evidence to back that up, it's a leap of faith.

• Racecourse debut

Like Everest The Brave, Weespoof has never set foot on a racecourse before, so this is a debut with no form to analyse. What's interesting is that at 7.0 it's second in the market despite that blank page — punters clearly know something the form book can't tell us. Cheekpieces on debut suggests the team wants to make sure it's switched on from the off.

• Racecourse debut

Nine races and not a single win or place finish — Mister Frostie has the most experience in the field but the worst record to show for it. Pulled up last time out here at Downpatrick, and this jockey-trainer combination hasn't won together in six attempts. At 19.0, the market is reflecting exactly what the form book says.

• Mid-range in the market (19.0)

The race favourite and the horse the editorial team are backing to win, having finished runner-up to stablemate Asphalt Cowboy in this very race last year. It won at Downpatrick just 54 days ago, so it knows the track, but a distant eighth at Punchestown three weeks back is a concern on this slightly soft ground. At only six years old, it is one of the youngest horses in the field and arguably the one with the most room to improve.

• Market favourite (1.91)

This is the most extraordinary entry in the race: a six-year-old making its very first racecourse appearance, with absolutely no prior form to judge it on. Most horses have been racing for two or three years by this age, so this is a genuine unknown stepping into a 3m 5f chase on its debut. The jockey-trainer partnership wins roughly 1 in every 3-4 races together, but there is simply no data to go on here — this is pure speculation.

• Racecourse debut

The only horse in this field to have won over this exact course and distance, which is a genuinely rare advantage at 3m 5f around Downpatrick. However, the market has completely turned against it — odds drifted from 1.1 out to 13.0, which suggests something has spooked punters, possibly a concerning prep run. Worth noting the editorial verdict backs its stablemate Cause For Comment to reverse last year's result, when Asphalt Cowboy finished ahead.

• Only winner at this distance
• Has won over this course and distance
• Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)

At 12 years old, this is the eldest horse in the field, and it is returning from a 385-day absence — the longest lay-off of any runner here. Its last two starts brought a pulled-up and a distant 16th, so recent form gives little reason for confidence. The one glimmer is that it has won 1 from 4 races on soft or wet ground, which suits today, but that is a thin thread to hang hope on.

• Absent 385 days (longest in field)

Here is an important caveat: this horse has never raced on slightly soft ground before, so today's conditions are an unknown quantity. It ran at Cheltenham seven months ago and finished 14th, beaten over 42 lengths, and has only won once in 13 career races. A new jockey riding for the first time with this trainer adds another layer of uncertainty — there are too many question marks to make this an attractive proposition.

• Never raced on slightly soft ground

The youngest horse in the race at just 4 years old, Theemeraldempress is also the lightest weighted — a small advantage on the scales against older rivals. She is making her racecourse debut but is third in the market at 4.0, suggesting trainer Gavin Cromwell has her well prepared. The editorial singles her out alongside Dinner Dance as one of two horses showing smart point form, making her the most interesting alternative to the favourite.

• Racecourse debut

The market favourite at 3.25, Majestic Horizon holds a key edge over most rivals here — it is one of just two horses in this field that has actually raced before, finishing third at Wexford 15 days ago. That third-place finish means it goes to post having already tasted competition, while five of its seven rivals are making their racecourse debuts. Prior experience, however modest, counts for something.

• Lightly raced (1 career races)
• Market favourite (3.25)

One of only two horses in this field with actual racecourse form to point to, Brootally finished fourth on its only run, at Wexford just 15 days ago. That was a modest debut and it has yet to win or place, but at least it arrives with some experience of what a race actually feels like. The market has pushed it out to 8.5, suggesting few expect a dramatic improvement.

• Lightly raced (1 career races)

The editorial pick for this race, Dinner Dance is a half-sister to a Group 2 winner — the strongest bloodline flag in the field. She makes her racecourse debut from the powerful Gordon Elliott yard and is second-favourite at 3.5, closely matched in the market with the favourite Majestic Horizon. The pedigree is the real talking point here, and Elliott's record with debutants keeps her firmly at the top of the shortlist.

• Racecourse debut

The longest-priced horse in the race at 34/1, Im Too Busy is making its racecourse debut with no form whatsoever to assess. At 5-years-old, it arrives as a complete blank slate, and the market has firmly written it off. Honest data is thin here — this is simply one to watch and learn from.

• Racecourse debut

Making its racecourse debut with absolutely no prior form to judge — every punter is essentially betting on reputation and who's in the saddle. That reputation is significant: Dan Skelton is one of the sharpest trainers in jump racing, and Harry Skelton, his brother, rides — a combination that wins roughly 1 in 5 races together across more than 2,400 races. The race preview tips this horse to win on debut, and at 3.5 it is the market favourite.

• Racecourse debut
• Market favourite (3.5)

Only one race on the clock, but that debut ended in a close third — beaten just over two lengths — which is a promising calling card for a horse still learning its trade. Ridden here by Sean Bowen, one of the leading jump jockeys around, who combines with trainer Olly Murphy to powerful effect — they've won together more than 300 times. If the debut run translated well to this track and distance, this one has every right to be competitive at 3.7.

• Lightly raced (1 career races)

One race, one third-place finish, and a notable gap in experience — but the standout flag here is that Shamsat has never raced on normal ground before, making today's conditions an unknown quantity. The jockey-trainer partnership has yet to record a win together from four attempts, which is a thin record. Plenty of questions, not many answers at this stage of its career.

• Never raced on normal ground
• Lightly raced (1 career races)

Four races and zero wins, but Eustace Grenier keeps knocking on the door — four consecutive finishes of third or fourth suggest a horse that competes honestly without quite finding that extra gear to get to the front. Trained by Olly Murphy, who also saddles L'Amalric, so the stable has two bites at this race. Neither horse has won yet, which makes it an interesting internal contest to watch.

• Mid-range in the market (9.0)

The best win record in the field on paper — one win from six races — but those numbers come with a serious caveat: this horse has been off the track for over eight months, and its last three finishes were all well beaten. The market has reacted sharply, drifting from a short price to 6.5, which suggests those in the know aren't convinced about the long absence. Until it proves its fitness here, the form book means very little.

• Absent 255 days (longest in field)
• Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)

The market favourite at 2.25, and the editorial verdict picks this one out as the horse most likely to win — and it's easy to see why, given the runner-up finish last time out at Hexham. As a younger, lighter-weighted horse compared to most of the field, it has physical advantages too, and a second place from four races suggests the win is close to coming. The main task is converting that recent promise into a first career victory.

• Market favourite (2.25)

Only two races into its career, so there is still a lot we don't know about this horse. The most recent run — a third place at Chepstow — is encouraging, but it came 27 lengths behind the winner, which puts the form in perspective. With odds that have drifted sharply from near-evens to 8.5, the market is clearly cooling on its chances.

• Lightly raced (2 career races)

The biggest question mark in the field: this horse hasn't raced in over 400 days — the longest absence of any runner here — and has never raced on normal ground conditions before. Three runs, no wins, and a year off the track means there are more unknowns than knowns. It will take a big performance first time back to justify favouritism in the betting at any point.

• Never raced on normal ground
• Lightly raced (3 career races)
• Absent 400 days (longest in field)

The editorial verdict names this horse as the main danger to the favourite, and the record justifies the attention — one win from just three career races, meaning this horse has a better win rate than anyone else in the field. The concern is a pulled-up run last time out and a six-month absence since then, so fitness is a genuine question. If it bounces back to its winning form, it's the biggest threat to Crest Of Arms.

• Lightly raced (3 career races)

Only two hurdle races on record and neither has produced a win or a place, with the most recent outing ending in an eighth-place finish at Perth just eight days ago. Crucially, this horse has never raced on normal ground conditions before, so today's surface is an unknown quantity. The trainer, Olly Murphy, is a strong operator — but this horse hasn't given him much to work with yet.

• Never raced on normal ground
• Lightly raced (2 career races)

The market favourite at 5.2, but the recent form makes that hard to justify — fourth, eleventh, and fourth in his last three races. He's the youngest of the leading fancies at six years old and does have a solid record on today's ground, but his last run at Wincanton was well beaten. The market may be more hopeful than the form warrants.

• Market favourite (5.2)

Named as the main danger to the top pick, and the form backs that up: second in each of his last three races, finishing within three lengths of the winner twice. He's the youngest of the main contenders at just five years old, which suggests there could still be more to come. The one worry is that today's normal ground is where he has failed to win in four previous attempts.

• Placed in 2 of last 3 races

Still searching for a first win from four races, but the second-highest official rating in the field tells you this horse is considered talented. The problem is that rating hasn't translated into a victory yet, and there's a gap in recent form where a result from Doncaster isn't even recorded. More promise than proof at this stage.

• 2nd highest rated (OR 111)

Joint-lowest rated horse in the field, sitting 9lbs below the field average — that's a significant gap in official ability terms. He's been placed in his last two races at Fontwell, so he's showing up and competing, but he's yet to demonstrate he can do it at a higher level. Hard to make a case for him against better-rated rivals today.

• Lowest rated, 9lbs below average

The editorial nap, and the reason is straightforward: this horse just got off the mark at Taunton last month after a long wait, and first-time winners often improve sharply in the race that follows. His win rate of roughly 1 in every 15 races looks thin, but the recent form is pointing upward and today's normal ground suits him. The market has him second-best in the field.

• 2nd in the market (5.5)

The market favourite and top-rated horse in the field by 6lbs, which tells you the betting public think this race is his to lose. He won easily at Huntingdon just three days ago and carries a double penalty for that, but the editorial verdict says he's still well treated despite the extra weight — his trainer Dan Skelton and jockey Harry Skelton have won together more than 500 times, and they clearly believe he's worth running again quickly. The one flag: he's never won on normal ground conditions in seven attempts.

• Top rated by 6lbs
• Runs again after just 3 days
• Market favourite (1.53)

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 43 races to everyone else's average of 20 — and crucially the only runner here with a win at this distance. Was beaten just over a length last time out at Ludlow, which keeps the form fresh, though his record on today's normal ground conditions is a concern: zero wins from four attempts on similar surfaces.

• Only winner at this distance
• Best record on this ground (2 from 10)
• Most experienced (43 runs, field avg 20)

On paper this horse has the best win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 7 races — but context is everything: the last three completed runs have all been 8th-place finishes, including one that came nearly three years ago. The jump up two class levels from its most recent outing at Stratford makes this a tough ask, and there's little in the recent data to inspire confidence.

• Steps up 2 classes
• Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)

Rated 16lbs below the field average — the lowest-rated horse here by a clear margin — and carries the lightest weight as a result, which is the one practical advantage in her favour. She pulled up last time out 56 days ago and has only won once in 14 races, though that victory came on ground similar to today's conditions. She needs everything to fall right, and a step back up in class doesn't help.

• Lowest rated, 16lbs below average
• Carries lowest weight in field

Nine races in and still looking for a first win, and recent form makes that search look harder than ever — pulled up at Wetherby last time, and beaten nearly 33 lengths at Haydock before that. One of the least experienced horses in the field, and nothing in the data suggests a turnaround is imminent.

• Relatively inexperienced (9 career races)

The market favourite at 2.5, and it's easy to see why — this horse has finished second in three races in a row, most recently beaten just a neck at Uttoxeter. It has never won in nine career races, but the form arrow is firmly pointing up, and it races off a rating 13lbs below the top-rated Playful Fox, which means it carries significantly less weight today.

• Market favourite (2.5)

The top-rated horse in this field by 7lbs, which means the official assessors think it is clearly better than anything else here on paper. That rating comes despite four races without a win, the most recent of which ended when the rider was unseated at Uttoxeter. Harry Skelton, who has won races together with trainer Dan Skelton over 500 times, takes the ride — and this looks like the right race for a first win.

• Top rated by 7lbs

This horse has been off the track for 592 days — the longest absence of any runner in the field — and returns having never won or placed in four career races. The last run ended in a pull-up, and asking a horse to win first time back after 17 months away with no prior form to speak of is a big ask.

• Absent 592 days (longest in field)

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 25 races compared to an average of 12 for the others — and crucially the only horse here with a winning record at this exact distance of 2 miles, winning 3 from 12 at the trip. The problem is that recent form has been poor, with two losing runs in the last couple of months, and at age nine this horse may be past its best.

• Only winner at this distance
• Best record at this trip (3 from 12)
• Most experienced (25 runs, field avg 12)

Seventeen races into its career and still without a win, which makes this horse one of the least convincing prospects in the field. The previous run ended when the horse was brought down at Taunton, and before that a sixth place here at Worcester suggests this track holds no special magic. Carrying a 7lb weight allowance for her apprentice jockey is a small plus, but the overall picture is hard to make a case from.

• Winless from 17 career races