Downpatrick

Eight years old, 15 races, and still searching for a first win — Bayonetta is the definition of a horse that places without converting, having finished in the top three eight times without ever crossing the line first. She has raced here at Downpatrick five times without winning, and her last run was just nine days ago, which is a quick turnaround. There is nothing in her record to suggest today will be the day she finally breaks through.

Sixteen races and still no wins — Phildante has managed three place finishes to show she is not entirely out of her depth, but recent form of 6th, 10th, and 12th tells a discouraging story. She is returning from six months off the track, which adds another question mark, and at this stage of her career that first win feels no closer. Hard to make a case for her here.

Nine years old, 37 races, and yet to win a single one — Toor Moon is perhaps the most remarkable case of near-misses in this field, having placed 13 times without ever finishing first. He ran at this course 54 days ago and finished third, which shows he is at least competitive here, and he arrives in reasonable nick after two recent runs. But 37 races of evidence is a hard thing to argue against.

The lowest weight carrier in the entire field, but that advantage counts for little when the form reads: 15th, pulled up, 10th, 12th, pulled up, 7th. Milesfromthehonk has never once finished in the places across six career races, and her last outing was a 15th-place finish beaten over 40 lengths. Even with a fresh trainer pairing, this is a very difficult horse to recommend.

Twenty-three races and still without a win, Joya Del Mar is the editorial team's pick as the one to be on — the argument being that her best form makes her well-placed in the weights despite a disappointing run here last time. The full result of that run 14 days ago isn't known from the data, but the editorial verdict suggests she was below her best and is worth forgiving. At 19/1, the market hasn't bought into that view, but she has course experience and there's a case she's been given a squeak by the assessor.

Seventeen races without a win and her last outing ended in a pulled-up at Tramore nearly six months ago — Gortmore Lady has not given her supporters much recently. She has never won at Downpatrick in six attempts, and the extended absence adds another layer of doubt. Four career place finishes show she can be competitive, but there is little here to suggest a winning performance is imminent.

Jimli's Cave is one of only two horses in this field who has won over this exact course and distance at Downpatrick, which is a genuine advantage in a field full of winless horses. His record on today's ground type is also the best of any runner here — 1 win from 5 races on similar conditions. Recent form has been poor, including an 11th place and a pulled-up, so he needs to recapture that winning form, but the course-and-distance win makes him interesting.

Scary Askari has been off the track for 142 days and has never raced on today's slightly soft ground, so there are two unknowns to navigate before even considering his modest form. Six races have produced just one placing, and his last three finishes were 13th, 6th, and 8th — none of them close. This is a horse with a lot to prove and not much in the record to inspire confidence.

Boston Queen has been off the track for 229 days — the longest absence in the entire field — and her four career runs have produced no wins and no places, with finishing positions no better than sixth. She is trained by Gordon Elliott, one of the most powerful yards in Ireland, which is the one thing in her favour, but returning from nearly eight months off with a blank record is a tough ask. Hard to back with any confidence.

A 10-year-old with 43 races behind her, Game And Glory has won just twice in her career and has never won at Downpatrick in seven attempts — a tough combination. Her last three completed runs include a fall and a pulled-up, and she has never won on this left-handed course type. At 29/1, the market has assessed this accurately.

At 11 years old, Lady Iseult is the oldest horse in the field and her single career win came over three years ago. Her last completed run before a no-result last time out was a pulled-up at Down Royal, and she has never won on soft or yielding ground. At 51/1, the market has this one assessed correctly.

The top-rated horse in the field by 3lbs and, crucially, one of only two runners who has won over this exact course and distance — his Downpatrick win came just 54 days ago, making it the most recent course-and-distance victory in the race. The big concern is his ground record: he has never won on soft ground in 11 attempts, and today's slightly wet conditions are a real stumbling block for a horse who has done his best work on better ground. Most experienced runner in the field with 48 races under his belt, but the ground could be his undoing.

Five races have produced finishing positions of 20th, 14th, 11th, 11th, and 12th — Jetstream Jeff has been towards the back of the field in every single race he has run. He has never raced on today's slightly soft ground and has yet to show any ability to get competitive. At 81/1, the market has this one right.