Worcester

The top-rated horse in this field by 7lbs, which means the official assessors think it is clearly better than anything else here on paper. That rating comes despite four races without a win, the most recent of which ended when the rider was unseated at Uttoxeter. Harry Skelton, who has won races together with trainer Dan Skelton over 500 times, takes the ride — and this looks like the right race for a first win.

This horse has been off the track for 592 days — the longest absence of any runner in the field — and returns having never won or placed in four career races. The last run ended in a pull-up, and asking a horse to win first time back after 17 months away with no prior form to speak of is a big ask.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 25 races compared to an average of 12 for the others — and crucially the only horse here with a winning record at this exact distance of 2 miles, winning 3 from 12 at the trip. The problem is that recent form has been poor, with two losing runs in the last couple of months, and at age nine this horse may be past its best.

Seventeen races into its career and still without a win, which makes this horse one of the least convincing prospects in the field. The previous run ended when the horse was brought down at Taunton, and before that a sixth place here at Worcester suggests this track holds no special magic. Carrying a 7lb weight allowance for her apprentice jockey is a small plus, but the overall picture is hard to make a case from.