Ascot
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Carey Group Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Starts in
Awaiting result
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Super Value
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite, and the career numbers back it up — winning 1 in every 2 races, the best win rate of any horse in this field. The trainer is in the form of their life right now, winning 6 from their last 14 runners, and Oisin Murphy is one of the best jockeys in the country. The only real question is a 259-day absence since his last race.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Trainer in best form (6 from 14 last 2wk)
Market favourite (6.4)
TrackLab Insight
Second in the market at 8.4, and the recent form includes a third at Doncaster just six weeks ago, suggesting he arrives race-fit. He wins roughly 1 in 3 races overall, which is strong, but his record on big right-handed galloping tracks — exactly what Ascot is — shows just one win from seven attempts, which is the key doubt.
2nd in the market (8.4)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2025
"He started off the season really well with a second at Newmarket in April behind Bullet Point. I then sent him to France to run in a handicap but he was really disappointing. He came back with a sore foot and an abscess, so he must have been feeling it. Sometimes those take a long time to come through - at the time of the race the horse was fine but afterwards he wasn't himself. At Newcastle last time he had a nightmare as he was trapped with nowhere to go on the rail and in the end he just had a canter. If he handles Goodwood perfectly, and I can't see why he wouldn't, he could be a massive contender in the Golden Mile on Friday. 30-07-25"
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The best course record in the entire field — two wins right here at Ascot, most recently a Class 2 victory in May 2025 — which is a huge asset in a race where so few horses have won at this track. The catch is he hasn't raced for 217 days, and his record on the normal ground we'll get today is a blank: zero wins from eight attempts.
One of few course winners (2 wins here)
TrackLab Insight
The standout stat here is compelling: three wins from six races on normal ground conditions — the best record in the field on today's expected surface. A close third at Haydock just two weeks ago shows he arrives in form, though his zero wins from eight races on right-handed galloping tracks like Ascot is a real concern.
Best record on this ground (3 from 6)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2025
"He did really well last year, winning four times. He's been a little disappointing this season but I think possibly the handicapper's got hold of him. He went up from 68 - the mark he won his first race off last year - to starting this year on 92. With a bit of luck, he'll start winning again soon - and he runs at Newmarket on Thursday. 02-07-25"
TrackLab Insight
The editorial team's top pick, and there is logic to it: won at Kempton 42 days ago and arrives fit, with a career win rate of 1 in 3 from nine races. Stall 1 is the single best draw at Ascot over seven furlongs — low draws dominate here — and James Doyle is a top jockey in excellent recent form.
Relatively inexperienced (9 career races)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Carries the lowest weight in the entire field, which is a real advantage in a race like this, and arrives on the back of a win at Epsom just 11 days ago. The jockey is in the hottest form of anyone riding today — 5 wins from his last 10 rides — and three consecutive top-three finishes make this one of the more compelling each-way cases at 23/1.
Carries lowest weight in field
3 straight top-3 finishes
Jockey in best form (5 from 10 last 2wk)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Won his last two races back-to-back at Southwell, but those were lower-grade contests, and today represents a significant step up in class. His record on normal artificial surfaces is excellent — 3 wins from 4 — but this is turf at Ascot, a very different challenge, and the data there is limited.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
TrackLab Insight
Picked out as one of the editorial team's fancied runners, and the form on normal ground is solid — two wins from four attempts on good ground. He is one of the less experienced horses in the field with just eight races, but a good draw in stall 13 and a price that has shortened from 23s to 20s suggests market support is building.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
TrackLab Insight
An eye-catching win rate of 38% — winning roughly 2 in every 5 races — and a perfect record on slower artificial surfaces, but this is normal turf at Ascot, a very different test. The high draw in stall 29 is the worst possible position at this track, and the jockey-trainer combination has won just 1 from 21 races together.
Among the fancied runners (23.0)
TrackLab Insight
This horse actually won at Ascot in May 2024, making him one of only a few genuine course winners in the field. The problem is he hasn't raced for 187 days, and on his return from a similarly long break last time, he finished 9th. Coming back fresh after six months off is a significant ask.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
TrackLab Insight
Won back-to-back Class 1 races at Lingfield earlier this year, which looked exciting, but then finished 11th at Newmarket last time out. The critical risk here is ugly: zero wins from eight races on right-handed tracks with a big, galloping layout — and Ascot is exactly that kind of course.
3 straight top-3 finishes
TrackLab Insight
One of the least experienced horses in the field with just six races, but that record reads impressively: two wins and three places, with a win rate of 1 in 3. The editorial verdict picks him out as a likely contender, and at 21/1 with a close-up fifth at Haydock last time, there is real interest here — though first time at Ascot adds uncertainty.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
TrackLab Insight
At ten years old, the most experienced horse in the field by a wide margin — 56 races to the average of 19 — and still competitive enough to finish second at Newmarket three weeks ago. However, he has never won at Ascot in eight attempts, and his record on the normal ground conditions today is a blank: zero wins from five tries.
Most experienced (56 runs, field avg 19)
TrackLab Insight
One of only a handful of horses in this field who has actually won at Ascot, which counts for something in a 29-runner field. However, his last three runs have been modest, and his record on the normal ground we'll get today is a blank — zero wins from seven attempts on similar conditions. Hard to get excited at 40/1.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
TrackLab Insight
Ran second in a tight finish just over a month ago, so arrives in decent order, but the standout problem is simple: six races at Ascot and not a single win. The high draw (23) also puts him in the least favourable part of the track at this course and distance, where horses drawn 23 and above win only 5% of races.
Among the more experienced (24 career races)
TrackLab Insight
Two career races, no wins, no places — that is the entirety of the record. Two races is genuinely too small a sample to judge a horse fairly, but entering a competitive 29-runner field at Ascot with that level of experience is a steep ask. Data here is simply too thin to make a strong case.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
TrackLab Insight
Won a Class 2 race at Newmarket on this seven-furlong trip in April 2025 — a relevant piece of form — and the 7f–1m distance range suits him, with a win rate of 1 in 3 at those trips. The concern is a 224-day absence; he hasn't raced since finishing 13th at Newmarket in September, and returning fresh into a field of 29 is tough.
Mid-range in the market (42.0)
TrackLab Insight
Six wins from 19 races is a strong career record, and this horse clearly has ability, but he has been absent for 287 days — the longest layoff of any runner in the field. His record on the good ground expected today is also a concern: zero wins from six attempts on similar conditions.
Absent 287 days (longest in field)
TrackLab Insight
Has a Class 1 win at Newmarket from 2023 on his record, which shows the ceiling of this horse's ability, but his last two completed runs were 14th and 19th — performances over 200 days ago. Returning from seven months off with that recent form makes him very hard to trust, even at 40/1.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
TrackLab Insight
A horse that thrives on wet or soft ground — winning 2 from 5 on soft going — but today's normal conditions are his nightmare: zero wins from 13 attempts on good ground at any course. Despite carrying a rating that puts him in the upper half of this field, the market has pushed him out to 70/1 and the conditions argue against him.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
TrackLab Insight
Wins roughly 1 in 3 races across his career, which is a solid return, but his last run — 12th at Southwell four months ago — was poor, and he is returning from a 128-day break. There is no specific Ascot negative in the data, but nothing strongly points his way either.
Mid-range in the market (36.0)
TrackLab Insight
Wins roughly 1 in 3 races overall — one of the stronger career records in this field — and has a particularly sharp record on normal ground, winning 4 from just 6 attempts on it. His price has drifted badly from 36s to 50s despite that, which is worth noting as a caution.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
TrackLab Insight
One win from 11 races and returning from a 231-day absence makes this a very difficult horse to back with confidence. He has had wind surgery, which can sometimes spark improvement, but finishing 8th and 12th in his last two completed runs does not build a strong case.
Outsider at 90.0
TrackLab Insight
The best record at seven furlongs of any horse in the field — 3 wins from just 4 attempts at this exact trip, a win rate of 60% — which is a genuinely standout stat. The worry is finishing 11th at Newmarket last time out, but that was only three weeks ago and the trip here suits him better than most rivals.
Best record at this trip (3 from 4)
TrackLab Insight
Four of this horse's six career wins have come at Newcastle, making him an out-and-out specialist for that one track. Away from Newcastle, the record thins out considerably, and finishing 16th at Newbury three weeks ago did nothing to change that picture. Ascot is a very different course to his happy hunting ground.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
TrackLab Insight
Won back-to-back Class 2 races in January and February 2025, which was a genuinely impressive sequence, but his last three runs since then have yielded a 10th, a 5th, and a 3rd — suggesting he has not recaptured that level. His record on right-handed galloping courses like Ascot is also worrying: zero wins from five attempts.
Mid-range in the market (48.0)
TrackLab Insight
One win from 17 races tells the story plainly — this horse finds winning very difficult, and the market reflects that at 75/1, having drifted dramatically from 27s. His record on left-handed tracks with a galloping layout like Ascot is a further concern: zero wins from seven attempts on similar courses.
Outsider at 75.0
TrackLab Insight
Has won at the very top level — Class 1 races at Haydock and Newbury — showing genuine ability earlier in his career, but at eight years old and with zero wins from 14 attempts on the normal ground conditions expected today, the conditions are firmly against him. Eight visits to Ascot without a win rounds off a difficult profile.
Lowest rated, 6lbs below average
TrackLab Insight
Finished 21st of however many ran at Newbury three weeks ago, which is a difficult recent effort to look past. There is some promise at seven furlongs — this trip — but at 110/1 the market has made its verdict clear, and the recent form offers little reason to disagree.
Outsider at 110.0
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The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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