Serengeti

The form figures tell an interesting story. Serengeti has placed four times in those 13 races, meaning it has been in and around the action more than the bare win record suggests. The recent run of six races without a win — with finishes of 28th, 21st, 5th, 4th, 5th, and 2nd reading back from the most recent — shows a horse that swings between encouraging and baffling. That 28th and 21st are concerning, but the cluster of top-five finishes and a runner-up spot hints at a horse that is still capable when things go right.

Where Serengeti does make most sense is over seven furlongs to a mile. At that trip, it has won 2 of 8 races — one in every four — which is a genuinely solid record and well above what you'd expect from a horse at this level. Both of its wins have come at that distance, the first at Dundalk in October 2024 and the most recent at Naas a year later. The problem is that when the grade steps up, the results dry up entirely. In four races at Class 2 level — some of the better races in Britain — Serengeti has yet to get its nose in front, losing all four. That is not necessarily a disgrace, but it does suggest the horse is more comfortable when the competition is a touch softer.

Trainer Mike Murphy operates out of Westoning in Bedfordshire, and the yard has been in decent form this season with 14 winners on the board. Serengeti raced just yesterday, so it is clearly being kept busy, and at the right trip on a good day, there is no reason to write off another win. The Naas victory showed it can deliver when conditions suit. The task for Murphy is finding the spot where everything clicks again.