Karakula heads into this race as the market favourite at 6/1, backed by two consecutive second-place finishes at Wolverhampton, including one where she was beaten by just a nose. The concern is that her best form has come at slightly shorter distances than today's mile and three furlongs, and she's yet to prove she fully stays this trip. She's also meeting a new jockey today for the first time, which adds a small element of the unknown.
The editorial verdict picks out Imperial Cult as the one to beat, and the case is straightforward: he won last time out at Lingfield and is now stepping up in weight by just 3lbs as a result. The concern, and it's a significant one, is that he has never won at Kempton despite 10 attempts here — all four of his career wins have come elsewhere, and his record on today's slow ground conditions is 0 from 10. He arrives in winning form but faces a track and conditions that have found him out before.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Pershalla is one of the few horses in this field that has actually won at Kempton, doing so just 63 days ago over this exact trip — that's a significant edge in a 14-runner field. She followed that up with a second at Yarmouth before a below-par seventh last time, so the question is whether that Windsor run was a blip or a sign of something more concerning. She's drawn widest of all in stall 14, which isn't ideal here, but her course form makes her genuinely interesting.
Won at this course & distanceFresh (68 days off)Trainer in formWon 1 of last 5Won here 2 times
TrackLab Insight
Sonnerie Power stands out as one of only two horses in the field with multiple wins at Kempton, making it one of the course specialists here — a meaningful edge on a track where familiarity helps. It also has a solid record on today's slow ground conditions, winning twice from 12 attempts on similar surfaces. The recent form of 6th and 7th is uninspiring, but this is a horse with genuine reasons to outrun its odds on a track it clearly knows.
One of few course winners (2 wins here)
Trainer Quotes
Sep 2024
"He's been a bit frustrating. We bought him out of the Roger Varian yard last year and he hasn't managed a win yet. He's been running well though, and has dropped down to a good mark. He's more consistent on the all-weather than the turf and his recent form is pretty strong. We'll be generally keeping him to the all-weather for the next two or three months and he's ready to win soon. He'll run at Kempton on Wednesday and should have a good chance. 26-09-24"
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
At 10 years old, Uzincso is the oldest horse in the field by two years, and his record of 2 wins from 42 races — roughly 1 in every 21 — puts him among the least likely winners here on paper. He was a respectable fourth at Kempton just three weeks ago, beaten by just a length, which shows he's still competitive at this track. The problem is that he's yet to win at Kempton across his career, and his record on today's ground conditions gives no reason for optimism.
Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
Trainer Quotes
Sep 2022
"He's better on the all-weather, where his mark of 83 is 5lb higher than on turf. Six of his seven wins have been on the all-weather, so it was particularly pleasing to see him win at Newmarket this summer over a mile on a day that meant a lot to his connections, being the Glenn Roeder raceday. I think the handicapper has been a little harsh on him as he never runs a bad race, always giving his best, which makes it tough to drop him. He's almost ready to go again on the all-weather and is one to side with over the winter months. 23-09-22"
A well-travelled six-year-old with 42 races behind him, Golspie has been placing consistently of late — third, second, and fourth in his last three outings — without quite finding a way to win. His record shows he performs best on soft or fast ground, and his record on the slower surfaces like today's conditions is poor, with no wins from three attempts on similar ground. From stall 4, he gets one of the better draws at this track, which is at least something in his favour.
Eleven races and still no win — St Just In Time is one of two horses in this field yet to get off the mark despite double-digit career appearances. The six-year-old was beaten over 16 lengths last time at Southwell, and before that had a gap of over a year between runs, so consistency is not this horse's calling card. There's little here to suggest today will be any different.
Won at this course & distanceWearing tongue strapFresh (479 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won here 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence in the field by some distance — Running The Game has not raced in over 15 months, which is an enormous question mark regardless of anything else. When fit, there are reasons to be interested: this horse has the best record in the field on today's slow ground conditions, winning once from three attempts, and today's trip is where it has shown its best form. But asking any horse to perform at its best after such a lengthy break is a big ask.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)Absent 479 days (longest in field)
Seven races, zero wins, and not a single top-three finish on the board — Wood Whisperer is one of the least successful horses in this field by any measure. The second-highest rating in the race looks flattering given a recent run that saw it finish 12th at Nottingham, beaten 14 lengths. Hard to make a case for a horse whose best recent effort was fifth, beaten less than two lengths, at Southwell.
Wearing cheekpiecesJockey in form (3 wins in 14 days)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Six races, zero wins, and a wildly inconsistent profile — Semele has alternated between promising efforts and poor ones without ever stringing them together. The standout marker says she placed in two of her last three races, but in truth that third run was a 10th-place finish beaten over 20 lengths, and the 'third' came beaten 15 lengths at Wolverhampton. At 23/1, the market has a clear view of her chances here.
Wearing visorWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by a clear margin — 57 races to the next-busiest runner's 42 — Sea Of Charm has won 7 times and placed on 26 more occasions, which speaks to a durable, competitive horse. She has the best record in the field at this trip, winning once from three attempts at a mile and three furlongs. However, she's won nothing on today's slow ground in four tries, and recent form of 6th, 8th, and 5th doesn't suggest a win is imminent.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)Most experienced (57 runs, field avg 22)
Won at this course & distanceFresh (71 days off)Trainer in formWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Three Yorkshiremen carries the lowest weight in the field, which gives him a physical advantage over every rival, and his trainer Ivan Furtado is in sharp form — 3 wins from 12 in the last two weeks. The downside is that recent form has been poor: 9th, 9th, and 8th in his last three, all beaten well. He has shown he can handle slow-ground conditions based on his career record, so today's surface isn't a barrier — but he needs to find significantly more than he has been showing.
Carries lowest weight in fieldTrainer in best form (3 from 12 last 2wk)
Fresh (238 days off)Jockey in form (1 wins in 14 days)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Three races in, three blank results — Man From Havana has yet to finish in the top three in any outing, and now returns after nearly eight months off the track. He's never raced on slow ground like this before, and despite carrying one of the highest ratings in the field, the market has completely turned against him at 26/1. With so little to go on and a long layoff to overcome, this is a horse wrapped in question marks.
Never raced on slow groundLightly raced (3 career races)Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fresh (230 days off)Jockey in form (3 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Blackwaterfoot has the best career win rate in the field — 1 win from 7 races, roughly 1 in 7 — and is well suited by today's distance based on his record, but there are serious concerns around today's conditions. He has never raced on slow ground before, and his form on standard surfaces is a blank — 0 wins from 5 tries. His jockey, Sean Levey, is in the best form of anyone riding today, winning 3 from his last 13, but Blackwaterfoot is also returning from a seven-month break.
Never raced on slow groundBest career win rate in field (1 in 7)Jockey in best form (3 from 13 last 2wk)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.