Kempton

One of only two course winners here alongside Fleurman, and the recent form is genuinely consistent — second, third, second in the last three races, beaten small margins each time. The concern is that all three career wins on good ground suggest this horse is at its best on fast, dry surfaces rather than today's slow conditions, where it has yet to win. A persistent runner-up who may find the same fate again.

The editorial tip, and the data backs it up — this is the only horse in the field with a win over this exact course and distance, and it wins roughly 1 in 3 races on slow ground, the best record of any runner today in these conditions. With 58 races under its belt — more than double the field average — it's comfortably the most experienced horse here, and a horse that clearly knows its way around this particular track. The age is nine and the recent form is a string of fourths, but the conditions and the course fit better than any rival.

The lowest-rated horse in the field and still without a career win from 10 races, though it does carry the lightest weight today which helps. The jockey is the one bright spot — Mason Paetel has ridden two winners from 11 rides in the last two weeks, the best recent form of any rider here. It's a long two miles for a horse yet to win, but the weight advantage and an in-form jockey mean it shouldn't be completely dismissed.

The big question mark here is the ground — Tarbat Ness has never raced on slow conditions before, so today is a genuine unknown. When the surface suits, this horse has a solid record: wins roughly 1 in 3 races on soft ground and 1 in 4 on normal conditions, which would make it competitive. But with several rivals who have proven themselves in exactly these conditions, that uncertainty is a real concern.