Kempton

Hasn't raced for 235 days — the longest absence in the field — and the editorial verdict flags that last time out at Goodwood was a non-event, finishing 13th after a similarly heavy defeat at Ascot before that. On the positive side, the only win on record came over this exact course, so there is a venue connection, and the trainer is in decent form with three wins from 12 in the last two weeks. A big bounce-back is needed.

The only horse in this field who has already won at this exact course and distance — a genuine edge in a competitive race — and has finished in the top three in her last three races in a row. The low draw in stall one puts her in the prime part of the track, and the trainer has sent out three winners from 18 in the last fortnight. Consistent, course-proven, and drawn well: a serious contender.

Carries the lowest weight in the field and has the best career win rate of any runner here — winning three from seven races, roughly one in every two — and crucially, two of those wins came right here at Kempton. The record on today's slow surface is also the best in the field, with two wins from three attempts on similar conditions. A dismal 19th at Ascot last time clouds the picture, but if that's forgiven, the Kempton form alone makes this one very interesting.

Statistically the most impressive winner in the field — two wins from just three career races, both at Southwell — but the crucial question is whether that form translates here, and it has never raced on today's slow surface. Drawn in stall 10, the worst part of the track at this course and distance, which adds another layer of uncertainty. Exciting, but this is a proper test of whether the Southwell form is for real.