Kempton

Wins roughly 1 in 4 races across her career — the best win rate in the field on paper — but her last three runs tell a very different story: a pulled-up at Plumpton and two heavy defeats. She has never raced on this slow, wet-style surface before, and her record on soft ground reads zero wins from three attempts.

Zero wins from four races and nothing better than third, which makes her one of the lesser-fancied runners on form. Her one bright spot is a third-place finish at this very course back in November, showing she handles Kempton's artificial surface. The jockey-trainer partnership of Probert and Balding has an excellent long-term record together — over 130 wins from nearly 1,000 races — but this horse needs to find more to trouble the leaders.

By far the most experienced horse in the field with 38 races to her name — the average runner here has had just 9 — and she brings the best record at this trip, winning 2 from 8 races over a mile and a half. Her trainer and jockey have both gone winless in the last two weeks, and her last four runs have all been thirds or worse. Reliable for a place, harder to fancy for the win.

One career race, no win, no place, and a ninth-place finish beaten over 24 lengths at Newbury — there is almost nothing in the data to work with here. She has never raced on this slow surface, and this jockey-trainer partnership is a first-time combination. Brutal honesty: this is a horse we know very little about.