Kempton

Front Line Fury has two wins to its name but both came on normal ground — it has never raced on the slow, wet conditions on offer today, which is a real question mark. Recent form is uninspiring with a sixth and a tenth in its last two outings. The trainer is in decent form with two winners from 11 runners in the past fortnight, but this horse needs to prove it handles today's conditions before that counts for much.

Unusually for this field, Exotic Baby does have a record on slower ground — one win from four races in similar conditions — making it arguably better equipped for today than most of its rivals. A fourth at this same Kempton course just 14 days ago shows it is fit and familiar with the track. The overall win rate of roughly 1 in 7 is modest, and an eleventh at Ascot last month is hard to ignore, but the ground angle gives it a small edge over many in this field.

Five races and still waiting for a first win — but this horse keeps showing up and competing, with a second and a third among its placings and two fourths just beaten by around two lengths in recent runs at Kempton and Southwell. The standout marker here is a big price at 19.0 with nothing in the data to explain why it is dramatically overpriced, but equally nothing to suggest a breakthrough win is imminent. Honest but winless so far.

The data tells a straightforward story: two races, two last-place finishes, beaten 13 and 24 lengths respectively. The standout markers listed include "3 straight top-3 finishes" but the two recorded runs contradict that entirely, so treat that with caution. With only two races to go on and both of them very poor, this is the least exposed horse in the field in the least flattering way.

Sir Alfie arrives rated 4lbs above the field average yet is a rank outsider at 51.0, which tells you the market has little faith in him right now — and his last six races, all finishes between eighth and twelfth, back that up. He has never raced on today's slow, wet ground, which adds another unknown. The jockey and trainer have never won together in 18 attempts, making this a very hard case to argue.