James Ferguson

In total he has trained 122 career winners, which is a solid foundation for someone still in the early years of the job. Over the last 12 months he has sent out 22 winners from 197 runners — that's roughly 1 in every 9 races, an 11% win rate. That's actually a slight dip from last season when he was winning closer to 1 in every 7, so there's an element of a yard that is still finding its rhythm at this level, but three top-level wins in four years suggests the ceiling is high.

One thing that stands out is what happens when the rain arrives. On wet or muddy ground Ferguson wins 4 races from every 19 he enters — a 21% rate, meaning roughly 1 in every 5. That's nearly double his overall average and suggests he is either very good at spotting which horses thrive in those conditions, or genuinely patient about waiting for the right ground before running them. Either way, it's a meaningful edge.

Doncaster is another quiet speciality. Three winners from just 11 runners there is a 27% win rate — better than 1 in every 4 — which is the kind of number that makes you pay attention whenever Ferguson has a runner at that track.

His most regular partnership is with jockey Jonny Peate, who has ridden for the yard 54 times and won on 4 of those occasions. That's a modest 7%, or roughly 1 win in every 13 rides together, but the sheer volume of the partnership shows a working relationship that goes beyond the big days. The horse Cavolo Nero has a more striking story — two wins from 11 races together — but it's the combination of steady week-to-week collaboration with Peate and the ability to produce something special at Newmarket or York that sums Ferguson up. Still young as a trainer, already proven at the highest level.