Shabu Shabu

The most promising corner of Shabu Shabu's record is at distances of a mile and three to a mile and four furlongs, where that sole win came and where the overall picture reads 1 win from 7 races — 14%, or roughly 1 in every 7. That is not a headline number, but it is noticeably better than the horse manages at other distances, which suggests the longer trips at least give it a fighting chance. Shabu Shabu typically competes at Class 6, the entry level of British racing, winning 1 of 8 races at that level. That context matters: this is a horse finding it hard to win even in the most accessible grade of competition.

Jockey Daniel Muscutt has partnered Shabu Shabu five times without success, which is worth noting simply because continuity of rider usually reflects some level of confidence from the yard — yet the results have not come. Trainer James Ferguson operates out of Newmarket, one of Britain's great training centres, and his yard has been in decent form this season with 28 winners sent out. That suggests the infrastructure is there, even if Shabu Shabu has not been able to take advantage of it. Raced just one day ago and still active, this is a horse very much in the thick of its campaign — the question is whether the Great Yarmouth winner of last summer can rediscover that form, or whether that August afternoon remains the high point of the story so far.