Roscommon

Three placed finishes in a row, including a third at this very course just seven days ago, makes her the form horse of the field on recent evidence. She's back quickly after that Roscommon run, which suggests the yard are happy with how she's doing, and normal ground suits her well — she wins roughly 1 in 7 races on it. She's never won here though, and converting those consistent placed efforts into a victory has been the story of her 19-race career.

Carrying the lowest weight in the field and rated 8lbs below average, so he has the most ground to make up on the better horses here. He ran at this very track just seven days ago and finished seventh, beaten nearly six lengths, and the three runs before that read 20th, 9th, and 12th — a bleak sequence. He does have a decent record on normal ground (wins roughly 1 in 6.5 races on it), but there's nothing in recent form to suggest a turnaround is coming.

Rated 76 but drifting out to 21-1 in the market, which tells you the bookmakers aren't reading much into his official rating here. The jockey-trainer partnership has failed to win together in nine attempts, and his last three runs include a blank at Cork, a ninth at Dundalk, and another sixth. There's a 60-day absence to account for too, and the data offers little reason for optimism.

Won at Clonmel 53 days ago for his only career success, but today's track profile is a concern — he has zero wins from six races on right-handed galloping tracks, and Roscommon fits that description. His best form over long distances (2m+) doesn't align well with today's 1m4f trip either. He's stepping back down in trip from where he won, which adds another layer of uncertainty.

Eight races, no wins, no places — and she's returning from a six-month break, which is the longest absence in the field. Most tellingly, she has never raced on normal ground before, so today's conditions are an unknown quantity for her. With form figures of 4-4-5-8-9 and no obvious upside from the data, she faces a tough task on return.

The standout course record here is hard to ignore — the only course winner in the field, with two wins from five races at Roscommon, and he has also won over this exact course and distance. He also has the best record in the field on normal ground, winning roughly 1 in 3.5 races on it across his career. The major caveat is a 240-day absence and some very poor recent form including a 15th last time out, so he needs to find his best form quickly.

The most experienced runner in the race at 31 races, but her recent form reads 7-9-3 and the market has her at 41-1. The data flags that she has zero wins from nine races on left-handed galloping tracks, which is a significant concern if Roscommon falls into that category. Her strengths are on softer ground and longer distances, neither of which apply here today.