Roscommon

The highest-rated horse in the field by 4lbs, which on paper makes Adel the one to beat — but five races without a win tells a different story. That official rating hasn't translated into results yet, with recent finishes going backwards rather than forwards. Punters have noticed: the odds have drifted sharply, suggesting the market isn't buying the rating advantage.

The editorial tip of the race, bred to handle this mile-and-a-half trip, but arriving off the longest absence in the field — 232 days without a race. Previous form shows three bottom-half finishes, and crucially this horse has never raced on normal ground conditions like today's. Potential is the word being used, but there's a lot to prove on comeback day.

Three races, three seventh-place finishes — a record so consistent it would be almost impressive if the goal wasn't to finish higher. Like several rivals today, she has never raced on normal ground conditions, so this is a step into the unknown. With no wins and no places from three outings, there's very little here to inspire confidence.

The standout marker here is mixed recent form — a promising third place at Gowran Park just 13 days ago was followed by a distant 13th at Ballinrobe, so it's hard to know which version turns up today. Seven races without a win is a tough record, and the jockey-trainer pairing wins roughly 1 in 10 races together. The third-place finish shows ability, but the swings in form make this an unreliable proposition.

Three races and an improving trend in the wrong direction — 12th, then 10th, then 8th, with 8th being the career highlight. Rated 2lbs below the field average and with a jockey-trainer pairing that wins roughly 1 in 16 races together, the numbers don't point towards a breakthrough today. Lightly raced means there's room to improve, but the evidence so far is thin.

Technically has the best win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in 9 races — but the form since that Gowran Park win six weeks ago has fallen apart, with back-to-back seventh-place finishes. There's also a concern about the distance: her best results come over shorter trips of seven furlongs to a mile, and today's mile and a half is significantly further than that. A new jockey riding for the trainer for the first time adds another layer of uncertainty.

The most consistent horse in the race on a form basis — one win and five places from 10 outings means this horse has finished in the top three more than half the time it has raced. Crucially, its best record comes at exactly this distance (around a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half), which is a real tick in the box for today. The worry is a noted poor record on left-handed tracks, which Roscommon is — that's a genuine question mark.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, sitting 9lbs below the average, and carrying the lightest weight as a result — that weight allowance is the one thing in her favour. Seven races without a win or a place finish, and a draw in stall 14 which carries the lowest win rate at this course and distance. The data doesn't offer much encouragement.

Just two career races, both resulting in finishes outside the top nine, and now returning after seven months off the track — the longest absence alongside Admiral Will Brown. She has never raced on normal ground conditions and is rated 2lbs below the field average. There simply isn't enough evidence yet to build a case for her.