J. Kearney(3)
·
J. W Davison
· 4yo
· 9st 13lb
· OR 69
Form
22
Good Value
Won 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The market has made this horse the clear favourite, and the editorial verdict backs it too — a winner at Dundalk earlier this year before two creditable efforts at the Curragh, all on different ground types. Crucially, it has never raced on normal conditions before, so today is an unknown, though its one win came on artificial indoor ground which plays very differently. A low draw in stall 6 is a genuine plus, but punters are being asked to trust a horse stepping into unfamiliar territory.
Never raced on normal groundMarket favourite (5.5)
Wearing cheekpiecesQuick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
This horse won at Cork just 24 days ago and is back out again after only three days — that is an unusually short turnaround and worth watching carefully. Despite winning roughly 1 in 6 races overall across 25 outings, its record on normal ground is a significant red flag: no wins from seven attempts on similar conditions to today. The low stall 3 draw is a real asset, but the ground record undermines the appeal.
Among the least experienced horses in the race with only seven outings, Queen Aethelflaed has placed four times and won once — a solid enough record for a horse still learning its trade. The concern is a record of no wins from three attempts on normal ground, which is exactly what she faces today. Andrew Slattery doing the dual job of training and riding is a notable combination that has produced 83 wins together.
Placed in two of her last three races including a win at Dundalk 73 days ago, Bella Colombia arrives in decent nick and with form that is moving in the right direction. Her record on normal ground is the standout number: two wins from eight attempts, or roughly 1 in 4, which is the best normal-ground record in the field. The draw in stall 8 is workable, and this looks like a horse quietly in form at the right time.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
One of only a small number of course winners in this field, which matters at a track where familiarity can count for something. However, a 14th-place finish last time out and no wins on normal ground are real concerns, and a record of no wins from five races on right-handed tracks is a worry given Roscommon's layout. The Shane Foley booking adds some credibility, but the recent evidence is hard to ignore.
Fresh (197 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
One win from 34 races tells you this is a horse that has spent most of its career being competitive without converting — and returning after a six-month break does not help the case. That single career win came on heavy, wet ground, yet today's normal conditions are exactly the type on which it has never won across four attempts. The low draw is a genuine advantage at Roscommon, but there are too many questions here.
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
At nine years old and 53 races in, Free Solo brings more experience than almost anyone in this field — but recent form shows a seventh and an eleventh, and the high draw in stall 12 works against it on a track that strongly favours low-drawn horses. The key positive is real: this horse has won here over this exact distance, which only a handful in this field can claim. Normal ground also suits, with two wins from nine races on similar conditions.
Has won over this course and distanceBest record on this ground (2 from 9)Best record at this trip (1 from 10)
A third-place finish at Leopardstown five weeks ago shows there is some form in here, and trainer Adrian McGuinness has been in excellent shape this season. However, the record on normal ground is a major concern — no wins from three attempts on similar conditions — and stall 9 sits right in the middle of the draw where this track's statistics are at their weakest. Interesting enough to watch, but the ground record is a genuine hurdle.
Zero wins from ten career races is the blunt headline — this is a horse that has placed five times but never got to the front. Racing from stall 13, it faces one of the worst draws on the card given how heavily this track favours low numbers. A new jockey today adds further uncertainty, with the pair having never ridden together before.
Wearing tongue strapFresh (194 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Returning from a six-month absence with one win from 27 career races, and a record of no wins from ten races on normal ground — the exact conditions she faces today. The high draw in stall 16 is another obstacle on a track that punishes horses drawn wide. Dylan Browne McMonagle is a top-class booking, but even the best jockeys cannot paper over a profile this light on positives.
S. Rutledge(3)
·
G. O'Leary
· 4yo
· 9st 8lb
· OR 64
HeadgearForm
2.2
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
On paper, Blue Anthem has the best win rate in the field — roughly 1 in 6 races — and its record on fast, dry ground is extraordinary at two wins from just three attempts. The problem is that today's normal conditions are not the fast ground this horse craves, and it has failed to win in four attempts on similar conditions. A last-of-13 finish at the Curragh two weeks ago adds to the doubt, despite the decent career numbers.
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (64 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Four races in and yet to win or place, with a last-place finish of 23rd at the Curragh last time out that is hard to explain away. Like the favourite, this horse has never raced on normal ground before, so today is a complete unknown in terms of how the surface will suit. The draw in stall 14 is unhelpful, and the yard's Colin Keane booking is the one reason to keep half an eye on it.
No wins from nine races, one place finish, and now returning from a seven-month absence — this is about as thin a profile as you will find in the field. Recent form shows a 10th and 11th in her last two completed runs, and there is simply nothing in the data to suggest a winning performance is imminent. Hard to recommend.
One win from 27 races is a modest return for a six-year-old, and a high draw in stall 15 puts it firmly in the worst third of the draw — a serious disadvantage on this track. There is one glimmer: its best form comes over seven furlongs to a mile, which matches today's trip, and it has won on normal ground before. But form figures of 22nd and 15th in two of its last four completed runs suggest this is a horse near the bottom of its range.
Nine races without a win and drawn in the widest stall in the field — stall 18 — which is statistically the least favourable place to be at Roscommon. There is limited data to work with and nothing in the recent form to suggest a change of fortunes is coming. The name means luck, and that is what would be needed here.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.