Lingfield

The one positive the data gives him is a decent record on dry ground — one win from three races on that surface, the best ratio in the field for this specific condition. But he has never won at Lingfield in nine attempts, and the jockey has not ridden for this trainer before, which adds another unknown. Sixth here nine days ago, and the evidence suggests this track simply does not suit him.

The most experienced horse in the field with 64 races and the best win rate on paper — roughly one win in seven career races. He has finished second in three races in a row, which shows he is running consistently well but struggling to get his head in front. He is drawn in stall one, which gives him the best position on this course at this distance, but he has never won on dry ground in six attempts.

Rated 10lbs below the field average — the lowest-rated horse in the race — and carrying the lightest weight as a result, which is his one practical advantage. The twist is that he is actually a genuine Lingfield specialist, having won four times from 20 races here, more course wins than almost anyone else in this field. The problem is his last two runs here were both ninth-place finishes, and today's dry ground is where he has never managed a win in ten career attempts.

The lowest weight carrier among the well-beaten horses, and the jockey riding him has been in excellent form recently — winning 3 from 12 rides in the past two weeks, the best current form of any jockey in this race. But this horse has just one win from 18 races, and that jockey is riding for this trainer for the first time, with no established partnership to lean on. Seventh at Redcar nine days ago, and the overall profile makes it hard to argue a strong case.