The top-rated horse in this field by a clear 8lbs, which on paper gives him a significant advantage over his rivals — but his record of zero wins and zero places from seven races makes that rating hard to trust. He has never raced on slightly soft ground before, so today's conditions are an unknown, and his odds drifted sharply before the off. High class on paper, low delivery so far.
Top rated by 8lbsNever raced on slightly soft ground
Fresh (112 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Hakensack has never raced on slightly soft ground before, so today's conditions at Limerick are uncharted territory for him. He ran a promising second here at Limerick 143 days ago, which is the most relevant form in his record, but his last two runs since then have been well beaten. Zero wins from ten races overall, and his response to this ground is genuinely unknown.
The market favourite and the subject of the race's editorial verdict, Another Challenge finished a solid second at Down Royal in December and the editorial view is that this longer 2m 6f trip at Limerick should bring out more. The concern is a 146-day absence since that run — nearly five months off — and this horse is still searching for a first career win from eight races. Potential is there, but punters are taking it on trust.
Wearing tongue strapWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
One of the most experienced horses in the race with 44 career outings, but that experience has yielded just a single win — roughly 1 in every 44 races, which is as thin as it sounds. His only win came on faster ground, and his record on soft or wet ground is a blank across 19 attempts in those conditions. At 8 years old and rated below the field average, this is a tough ask.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 times
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this 14-runner field to have won at Limerick, with two victories from 17 races here — a course record that stands out sharply against rivals who are racing blind at the track. His recent form shows a run of placings and near-misses, and his record on soft or heavy ground includes a win, making today's slightly soft conditions less of a worry than for many others here. A new jockey today, but the course form is the strongest argument in his favour.
Royal Time has one win from 17 races, and his record on soft ground — zero wins from six attempts — is a real concern given today's slightly soft surface at Limerick. He is wearing blinkers, suggesting his trainer is trying something different to sharpen him up. Moderate in the market at 15-1, and his recent form offers little encouragement.
Nine races, zero wins, and just a single placed finish — Reve Inoui has yet to prove he can cross the line in front at any level. He has never raced on slightly soft ground before, so today's conditions are a genuine unknown. A fourth and fifth in his last two completed races suggest he is running consistently without threatening, but consistent and competitive are two very different things.
The least experienced horse in the field with just seven career races, which is unusually low for a 10-year-old — most horses his age have had 25 or more outings. He ran just nine days ago and finished third at Sligo, which is easily his best recent effort, but he has never won in seven attempts. Racing again quickly after that run, and today is a step up in competition.
Wearing visorWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field with 45 career races and three wins, but the ground record here is a significant red flag — zero wins from five attempts on soft ground and five more on heavy ground, making today's slightly soft surface the wrong side of his comfort zone. He has also never won at Limerick in seven attempts. Plenty of experience, but the conditions and course record point away from him.
Fresh (228 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field, sitting 11lbs below the average rating of his rivals, and returning from 228 days off the track without a single win from 31 career races. Three placed finishes across that lengthy career is all there is to point to. The name feels increasingly accurate, and nothing in the data suggests today will be different.
J. G Gilligan(5)
·
K. A Heffernan
· 10yo
· 11st 1lb
· OR 87
HeadgearForm
2.2
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Ranger Billy has the best career win rate in this field — winning roughly 1 in every 12 races — but the standout marker here cuts both ways: his record on wet or soft ground is zero wins from five attempts, which is a real worry on today's slightly soft surface. He raced as recently as 11 days ago, so fitness is not a question, but the ground almost certainly is. One to treat with caution despite the decent overall numbers.
Best record on this ground (1 from 6)Best career win rate in field (1 in 12)
A. O'Sullivan(7)
·
B. T Murphy
· 9yo
· 10st 8lb
· OR 80
HeadgearFreshness
1.5
Wearing tongue strapFresh (355 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Three Tribes has not raced for 355 days — the longest absence of anyone in this field — and returns with zero wins and zero places from seven career races. A new jockey partners the horse for the first time today, so there is no established combination to rely on either. This is a horse with everything to prove and very little in the record to suggest it will happen here.
Wearing hoodFresh (145 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Carrying the lowest weight in the field, which is an advantage in a race like this, and her record on soft and heavy ground actually shows wins — the opposite of many rivals here who struggle in those conditions. However, two consecutive pull-ups including one here at Limerick, plus a return from nearly five months off the track, make this a horse you need to see more from before trusting. The ground suits; the recent form does not.
A 10-year-old with 37 races behind him and just one win to show for it, Ferdia is one of the least fancied horses in the field at 67-1 despite carrying a reasonably high official rating. His only wins have come on faster ground, and today's slightly soft conditions at Limerick are exactly the type he has struggled on throughout his career. Two recent pull-ups here at Limerick do nothing to encourage.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.