Limerick

The market favourite at 2.75 despite never having won in seven career races, which is a striking combination — punters are clearly backing the trainer rather than the form book, with Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend winning roughly 1 in 3 races together. The unknown factor is the ground: he has never raced on slightly soft conditions, so how he handles today's surface is a genuine question mark.

Ran fifth right here at Limerick 35 days ago, so the course holds no mystery, and he has a solid record on soft ground — one win from three attempts in those conditions. That said, he's finished fifth in his last two races and his overall record of one win from nine shows he's still waiting to put it all together.

The standout course record in this field — two wins from three races right here at Limerick — and he's the only horse who has already won on today's type of ground, doing it twice from three attempts. He pulled up last time at Aintree, but before that he'd won back-to-back races, and with the best overall win rate in the field at roughly 1 in 3, he's the most compelling local argument against the favourites.

Back-to-back fifth-place finishes beaten a combined 62 lengths suggest he's struggling for form right now, and his win record on wet or soft-ish ground is blank — zero wins from three attempts in those conditions. At 26/1 the market has little faith, and the recent evidence makes it hard to argue.