Limerick

Ran well just 12 days ago at Killarney, finishing just half a length behind the winner — so she arrives here in decent nick. She has only five races under her belt, but one win and three placed finishes show a horse who competes rather than makes up the numbers. The big question mark is that 14th-place finish at Galway sandwiched in the middle — form that looks out of place alongside everything else she has done.

The editorial tips this horse to outrun the favourite, and there is logic to it — dropping back from a Grade 2 race last time should make today's contest easier on paper. She is by far the most experienced horse in the field with 24 races, and her record on today's slightly soft conditions (one win from four races on similar ground) is the best of any runner here. The worry is that run at Punchestown 20 days ago, where she finished 66 lengths behind the winner — that is a big gap to explain away.

Back at Limerick, where she finished third just two months ago, so she has shown she can handle this course. The big unknown is her run at Clonmel just seven days ago — the result is missing from the data, so it is impossible to know whether she arrives here in form or recovery mode. With odds of 17/1 and a single career win from 11 races, she needs everything to fall right.

Bluntly, this is the least convincing CV in the field — zero wins from 12 career races, and recent runs that include a pulled-up and an unseated rider. Rated 18 points below the average of the other rated runners, she is carrying the lowest official rating here by some distance. It is hard to make a case for her based on what the data shows.