Leopardstown

The most experienced horse in the field with 18 races under his belt — the field average is 10 — and he has placed in three straight races, including second at Navan last time, which shows he is in decent form. However, his best win rate comes over shorter distances of 1m 3f to 1m 4f, and he has never won on normal ground across four attempts. His odds drifting from 10s out to 17s suggests the market isn't convinced he can make the step up.

On pure course form, this horse has a remarkable record at Leopardstown — three wins from four races here — making him the undisputed course specialist in the field. The problem is he hasn't raced for 229 days, the longest absence of any runner today, and his most recent run was a 26th-place finish at the Curragh that is difficult to explain. That layoff is a significant question mark, and at 23s the market isn't taking the chance.

A seven-year-old making his first ever racecourse appearance, which is extraordinarily unusual — most horses debut at two or three. There is simply no form to assess here, and his odds drifting out to 42s from an opening 26 suggests the market has no strong information to work with either. Trained by Willie Mullins, who knows how to have a horse ready, but in a Group 3 race on debut against proven rivals, he faces a near-impossible task.

His last three runs read 9th, 13th, and 10th, which tells a blunt story — he has been well beaten in every recent race and was last seen finishing 17 lengths adrift at Dundalk. Rated 25lbs below today's favourite, he is the lowest-rated horse in the field and his win rate of roughly one in ten races over a career of ten outings is the weakest in the field. At odds of 101, even the most optimistic reading of his data doesn't offer much encouragement.