Tennessee Stud

That single win came at Tipperary in September 2024, and it has not won since in six attempts. On the face of it, that is a long wait. But the distances Tennessee Stud has been campaigned at tell a different story. At a mile and a furlong to a mile and two furlongs, the horse has won 1 from 3 — a 33% win rate, which is genuinely excellent at that level. The issue has been finding the right target, and J.P. O'Brien now sounds like he has cracked it.

The trainer is openly talking about the Melbourne Cup, one of the most famous long-distance races in the world and a race that rewards exactly the qualities Tennessee Stud appears to possess: a relaxed temperament, a staying pedigree, and the ability to travel well in a big field. O'Brien has noted that the horse didn't suit the conditions in Saudi Arabia, but that a path through staying races — including a potential stop at the Her Majesty's Plate at Down Royal — could set him up perfectly for Australia. A trip to Longchamp also gave the team encouragement; the jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle reported the horse was simply getting lonely out in front at the finish, a forgivable problem that suggests talent rather than lack of it.

Tennessee Stud raced just yesterday, which means this is a horse in the middle of its season rather than one being built towards something. At four, with a trainer of this calibre pointing it at a clear long-term target, the quiet record so far looks less like underachievement and more like a horse still finding out how good it might become.