Doncaster

The last six runs read 8th, 10th, 6th, 12th, 11th, 8th — a difficult sequence to get excited about. Has no wins on normal ground across its career, which is what it faces today. At odds of 29, the market is telling the same story the form book is.

Brings the best record on today's normal ground of any horse in the field, winning one from three on similar conditions. Has also finished in the top three in each of its last three completed races, which puts it among the more consistent performers here. Drawn 13, which falls in the mid-range where the numbers are less favourable at this course and distance.

Thirteen races in and still waiting for a first win, though two placed finishes show there is some ability present. Finished fourth at Southwell 18 days ago, which at least puts a competitive run in the recent form. Drawn 14, which puts it in the high-mid range where the draw statistics at Doncaster are less favourable.

The least experienced horse in the field with just six career races, and still without a win. Finished eighth last time out, beaten over 10 lengths, having been off the track for 75 days. Drawn 3, which gives it the low-draw advantage at Doncaster, but the form gives little to work with.

One of the most experienced horses in this field with 31 races under its belt, but only two wins to show for it — roughly one every 15 outings. Finished 11th last time out at Newcastle, beaten 10 lengths, and has been drifting toward the back in recent runs. Hard to make a case for in a 17-runner field.

Has a decent record at this distance, winning roughly one in eight races at 7f to a mile, and back-to-back placed finishes at Beverley and Nottingham suggest it is in decent form right now. The worry is normal ground — no wins from five attempts on it across a 40-race career. If the track plays differently to how the conditions suggest, it drops out of calculations quickly.

The only horse in this field to have won at Doncaster, and crucially has won over this exact course and distance — a standout fact in a 17-runner field. It also carries the best career win rate here at roughly one in every seven races. The problem is the recent form: 12th, 10th, and 8th in three runs at Southwell, which makes it hard to be confident that the Doncaster magic can be rediscovered right now.

Has the best record at this trip of any horse in the field, with both career wins coming over 7f to a mile. The recent runs have been disappointing — 5th, 10th, and 10th — but the distance angle is a genuine positive. Drawn 15, though, which is in the high-draw range where Doncaster's statistics are least kind.

The longest absence in the entire field — 311 days off the track — and has never won in 10 career races. Returning from nearly a year away without a win to its name makes this a very difficult horse to support. The data simply does not offer a reason to be optimistic.

By far the most experienced horse in the field, with 68 races behind it compared to a field average of 23 — seven wins from those outings shows it knows how to win. However, it has never won on normal ground, wet ground, or fast ground — only on all-weather surfaces — and has a poor record on right-handed open tracks, which Doncaster is. Hard to see the course suiting it.

Drawn in stall 1, which gives it the best possible position at this course and distance where low draws have the strongest record. Has the distance in its favour too, with a better record at 7f to a mile than most rivals. The form has been patchy — just one win from 28 races overall — but the draw is a genuine plus in a race like this.

Five races, five finishes between 8th and 10th, no placed efforts, and 236 days off the track. Has never raced on normal ground before, so this is completely unknown territory. Carries the lowest weight in the field, but that is the only positive angle the data provides.