Carlisle
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Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict singles this horse out as the one to beat, and the recent form backs that up — three consecutive top-four finishes, including a third just nine days ago, showing this horse is running consistently right now. Rated 1lb below the field average, which means the handicapper has not yet caught up with this run of form. Drawn in stall five, which sits in the favoured low-draw bracket at this course and distance.
Mid-range in the market (7.0)
TrackLab Insight
A horse that genuinely thrives on wet or muddy ground — three wins from ten races in those conditions — but today's normal ground is a different story entirely, with no wins from five attempts in similar conditions. A 15th-place finish last time out on a dry surface underlines the concern. The draw in stall one gives a small advantage at this course and distance, but the ground is working against him.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Returned from a long absence with a solid third-place finish at Southwell 41 days ago, suggesting he is in reasonable shape coming into this. His record on normal ground reads one win from four attempts, which is modest but not dismissive. The jockey and trainer are working together for the first time today, which adds a small layer of uncertainty.
Among the more experienced (31 career races)
Trainer Quotes
Aug 2025
"We've bought a few for 1,000gns at the horses in training sale and most of them have won. We had his brother The Bell Conductor, so we kept an eye on him and he was cheaper than he should have been, maybe because he'd run poorly in a seller before the sale. We did his soft palate and he ran good races before winning at Pontefract in June. At the weights he had no right to win the claimer at Wolverhampton last Sunday but they probably went too quick in front and it fell into his lap. 14-08-25"
TrackLab Insight
The standout on experience and pedigree for this race: the only horse in the field to have won here at Carlisle, and with a career win rate of roughly 1 in 4, she is comfortably the most proven performer on show. She also has by far the best record at this five-furlong trip, winning 7 from 20 races at the distance. The concern is recent form — two poor runs before a third last time — but the course and distance credentials are unmatched in this field.
Only course winner (1 from 4 here)
Best record at this trip (7 from 20)
Most experienced (62 runs, field avg 27)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2024
"She's been a superstar for us. She hasn't stopped winning and she's honest and tough. The soft ground wasn't ideal for her at Doncaster last week, but she was 4lb well in, so we gave it a go and she ran well to finish fourth behind Jojo Rabbit. She's easy to train and ride. She's won ten times and there'll come a point where the handicapper will have a say, but she'll be winning again. 26-07-24"
TrackLab Insight
The longest absentee in the field by some distance — off the track for over seven months — and returns with just one career win from 19 races, a record of roughly 1 in every 20. That single win came on a very different surface, and the data shows no wins at all on normal ground in four attempts. Very hard to recommend here.
Absent 210 days (longest in field)
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and the second-most prolific winner in this field with five career wins from 23 races — roughly 1 in every 4. However, those wins have come on different tracks and the data offers no specific evidence of ability at Carlisle. Drawn in stall two, which is in the favoured low draw zone, and the in-form jockey-trainer partnership wins roughly 1 in 8 races together.
Market favourite (4.6)
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in the field by 3lbs, but that official rating looks flattering given a run of two poor efforts — finishing 9th and 13th — before today. His best form on normal ground reads well on paper, but the market has drifted sharply away from him, which is rarely a good sign. Carry the class advantage with caution here.
Top rated by 3lbs
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
TrackLab Insight
Second-highest rated in the field and won at Catterick just 40 days ago, but there is a significant red flag buried in the data: this horse has never won on normal ground in six attempts. Carlisle is also a very different track to Catterick, where Keldeo has built its best record. The form looks good on the surface, but the conditions may not suit.
2nd highest rated (OR 72)
TrackLab Insight
Showed reasonable form earlier in the season with back-to-back second-place finishes, but was then beaten nearly 15 lengths at Newcastle last time out — a jarring step backwards. The data also shows no wins from seven races on left-handed tracks, and Carlisle runs left-handed. Hard to make a case for him with confidence.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
TrackLab Insight
Seven career wins from 55 races tells you this is a horse that has earned its place at the table, but three consecutive finishes outside the top six — all beaten by comfortable margins — suggest he is not in his best form right now. Normal ground suits him well historically, with two wins from six attempts in those conditions, but the current run of results is difficult to ignore.
One of the more successful in the field (7 career wins)
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field with just four races to his name, and still searching for a first win or even a top-three finish. Rated 10lbs below the field average — the widest gap of any runner here — which reflects where the official assessors currently place him relative to his rivals. Honest data, but it does not make for an encouraging picture.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
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