Carlisle

The least experienced runner in the field with just 8 career races, and the only horse here yet to win — six places but no victories tells a story of frustrating near-misses. The last two runs were both eighth-place finishes, a step back from the promise shown earlier in the year. With no wins to point to and limited data on this course or ground, there's not a lot to build a case around.

The best career record in the field by some distance — this horse wins roughly 1 in every 4 races overall, and 6 of his 8 career wins have come over exactly this trip. The catch is that all his best form has come at Newcastle, where he becomes a different animal, and his last three runs away from there have all been disappointing. Carlisle is an unknown quantity for him, and that's a big ask.

The notable standout here is that he has never raced on normal ground before — every run has come on different surfaces, so today is a genuine unknown. He ran a solid fourth at Haydock three weeks ago, and his record at shorter distances is decent, but the jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together in eight attempts. Limited data makes him hard to assess with any confidence.

At 21-1 he's one of the outsiders, and back-to-back sixth-place finishes at Southwell make it hard to argue for a dramatic turnaround here. His sole career win came on normal ground, which is a minor positive, but he's never won on good ground in four attempts and his recent form gives little encouragement. The blinkers are fitted in an attempt to sharpen him up, but the evidence is thin.

At 10 years old, Detective is the oldest horse in the field and carries the lowest weight — 8lbs below the field average — which is the handicapper's way of giving him a fighting chance. Crucially, he is one of only two course winners in the field, with 3 wins from 21 races at Carlisle, and 7f suits him better than any other distance. However, he hasn't won on a left-handed track in eight attempts, and a ninth-place finish last time out doesn't inspire confidence.

The most experienced horse in the field by a wide margin — 50 races compared to a field average of 23 — but at seven years old and on normal ground, the evidence points in the wrong direction. His best form has always come on wet ground, where he wins more than 1 in 3 races, but he's never won on normal conditions in seven attempts. A tough ask today, and recent form has been poor.