Bay Breeze

The conditions matter too. Put Bay Breeze on wet or muddy ground and it wins roughly one in every three races — four wins from 12 outings in those conditions, a 33% win rate that would make plenty of trainers jealous. Tim Easterby noted early in the horse's career that firm, dry ground was a step too far, and that observation has proved accurate time and again. When the rain comes, Bay Breeze arrives.

The partnership with jockey David Allan adds another layer of interest. The two have raced together 28 times, producing 5 wins — that is roughly 1 in every 5.5 races, or an 18% win rate, which comfortably outstrips the horse's overall career average of 14% (7 wins from 51 races). Some horses and jockeys simply click, and this looks like one of those pairings.

That said, the current moment is a slightly awkward one. Bay Breeze has not won in its last six races, and most of its career has been spent at Class 4 level — one step below the top tier — where it has won only 1 from 22 races at that grade, a 5% win rate that suggests the horse finds the competition tough when the fields are deeper and the prizes are bigger. The last win came at Carlisle in May 2025, now a full year ago. The recent form figures — seventh, sixth, eleventh, second, ninth, fifteenth — paint a mixed picture, with that second-place finish a small flicker of encouragement among quieter runs.

Easterby's yard has been in fine fettle this season, sending out 126 winners, so the infrastructure around Bay Breeze is strong. With wet ground and a trip to Ripon, there is every reason to think this horse could still add to its tally. Without those ingredients, patience may be required.