Carlisle
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All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in the field who has actually won at Carlisle before — and crucially, has won over this exact course and distance, a fact that stands out in a 13-runner field. She's 8 years old and the lowest-rated runner here, carrying the lightest weight, but her record on normal ground is strong with 5 wins from 18 races. The draw in stall 1 is right in the low-draw sweet spot, and at 6.6-1 she looks interesting purely on course-and-distance credentials.
Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Only course winner (1 from 9 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict picks this horse out as the one to beat, sitting just 2lbs higher than when he won in July — which means the official handicapper hasn't punished him harshly for that success. He's been absent for over 200 days, the longest layoff in the field, so fitness is a genuine question, but the ground conditions today suit him better than most and the draw in stall 3 is in the favourable low-draw zone at Carlisle.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Absent 206 days (longest in field)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Still searching for a first career win from seven races, making him one of two horses yet to win in this field — alongside Lightning Galaxy. The jockey-trainer partnership here wins roughly 1 in 5 races together, which is a strong combination, but a ninth-place finish last time out at Musselburgh doesn't inspire confidence. Relatively lightly raced, so there may be improvement to come, but he has to prove it.
Relatively inexperienced (7 career races)
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite, and it's not hard to see why — back-to-back wins at Newcastle and Southwell in the past three weeks show a horse firing on all cylinders right now. The concern is that both those wins came on surfaces different to today's normal ground, and his record on fast or dry ground is a blank from eight attempts. Clearly in brilliant form, but today's conditions are the one thing that could trip him up.
Market favourite (5.0)
Trainer Quotes
Sep 2025
"He's a little dude and as solid as a rock. He has won three times this year, the latest at Doncaster in June. His form was becoming disappointing, so after his last poor run I thought the best thing to do would be to give him a holiday, as he'd been on the go rather a long time and had lots of runs. We'll see him back quite soon, maybe next month. He loves the all-weather too, as well as the turf, so there are plenty of options with him. 17-09-25"
TrackLab Insight
One of the more experienced runners here with 19 races behind him, and importantly both his career wins have come on normal ground — exactly what they face today. However, he draws in stall 12, which sits in the high-draw zone where Carlisle's record shows just a 4% win rate over this distance. His most recent result at Southwell is unknown from the data, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Among the more experienced (19 career races)
TrackLab Insight
Has the best record at this exact distance in the field, winning once from three races over 6 furlongs, and his draw in stall 5 puts him in the low-draw sweet spot where Carlisle's stats say the winners tend to come from. The worry is his last two runs — 7th and 12th at Thirsk — suggest he's not reproducing his Wolverhampton win right now. Interesting course-and-distance angle, but needs to find better form quickly.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
TrackLab Insight
Won his last race at Redcar but hasn't been seen since — that was nearly six months ago, which makes him one of the longer absentees in this field. He's the second-highest rated horse here, which suggests the official assessors think he has ability, but returning from a long break in a competitive race is always a risk. One to watch rather than trust blindly.
2nd highest rated (OR 72)
TrackLab Insight
Three visits to Southwell, three wins — a perfect record there — but Carlisle on normal ground is a very different proposition. His record on normal ground is actually exceptional too, winning 5 from 10 races in those conditions, yet his broader record on right-handed galloping tracks like Carlisle is poor, with just one win from 21 attempts. Back after just seven days, so at least freshness isn't the issue; the track profile is.
Runs again after just 7 days
TrackLab Insight
The best win rate in the field on paper — but that last run at Newcastle, where she finished 14th beaten nearly 20 lengths, is hard to ignore. Her two wins have both come on normal ground, which is a plus today, but she hasn't raced in six months between wins and arrives here 28 days after that poor effort. Worth treating with caution until she shows that form is behind her.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
TrackLab Insight
Nine years old and the most experienced horse in the field by some distance, with 62 races under his belt — but he has never won on normal ground in 13 attempts, which is precisely what they're racing on today. Two consecutive 10th-place finishes heading into this race don't help his cause either. His ability to win at all at this stage relies heavily on wet or muddy conditions that simply aren't here today.
One of the more successful in the field (7 career wins)
TrackLab Insight
Back just seven days after her last run, which is a quick turnaround and suggests the yard are keen to keep her busy. She races from stall 13, which is the worst possible draw at Carlisle over 6 furlongs — horses from that position win less than 1 in every 25 races here. A 23-1 shot with a poor draw and recent form that shows a 10th and a 6th; the data makes it hard to make a case for her.
Runs again after just 7 days
TrackLab Insight
The standout marker says she placed in 2 of her last 3 races, but a closer look at the actual form shows a 12th and a 10th in her two most recent runs — both beaten by wide margins. She's the lowest-rated horse in the field alongside Iris Dancer, carrying 8 lbs less than the average, and at 36-1 the market agrees this looks tough for her. Hard to make a positive case based on the available evidence.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
TrackLab Insight
Nine races, zero wins — and alongside Counting Cards, one of only two horses in this field yet to win a race. His last two runs produced a 9th and a 10th, beaten by wide margins both times, and he's a 34-1 outsider for good reason. The low draw in stall 4 is a small positive at Carlisle, but the form gives very little to work with.
Outsider at 34.0
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