The clearest example of that is Hamilton Park. At this tight, undulating Scottish circuit, Nicholls has turned out 4 winners from just 10 runners — that is an extraordinary 40%, or nearly 2 in every 5 horses he sends there. To put that in perspective, most trainers are pleased to win 1 in 8 or 9 races at any single track. Finding one where you win almost half your runners suggests either a genuine understanding of the course, or a very good eye for which horses will thrive there. Probably both.
Nicholls also seems to have a feel for conditions when the ground is slightly soft underfoot — when there has been a little rain and the turf has some give in it, his horses have won 2 from 15, which comes out at around 1 in every 7 or 8 races, noticeably better than his overall figures. It is the kind of detail that punters and rival trainers quietly file away.
His most regular partnership in the saddle is with jockey Harrison Shaw, who has ridden 66 times for the yard and won on 5 of them — roughly 1 in every 13 rides. That is a steady, workmanlike combination rather than a fireworks show, but 66 rides in four years speaks to real trust between trainer and jockey. Less encouraging is the link-up with Woodrafff, a horse Nicholls has run four times without a win — a partnership that has yet to click, though four races is still a small sample.
Fifty-eight winners in four years, a dominant record at one of Scotland's most distinctive tracks, and a training career still clearly in its growth phase. Nicholls is the kind of trainer who rewards closer attention.
| Course | Races | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thirsk | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| Newcastle | 14 | 0 | 0% |
| Beverley | 13 | 2 | 15.4% |
| Redcar | 12 | 0 | 0% |
| Hamilton Park | 10 | 4 | 40% |
| Catterick Bridge | 10 | 2 | 20% |
| Haydock Park | 10 | 0 | 0% |
| Carlisle | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
| York | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Doncaster | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Ripon | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Leicester | 4 | 1 | 25% |
| Southwell | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Newmarket | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Nottingham | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Newbury | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Ascot | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Pontefract | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Wolverhampton | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Epsom Downs | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Windsor | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Musselburgh | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Ayr | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Cork | 1 | 0 | 0% |