R. Kavanagh(3)
·
I. Williams
· 4yo
· 10st 7lb
· OR 75
ClassFreshness
20
Dropping in classQuick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by a pound and fresh off a Chester win just six days ago, but stepping up two classes here is a big ask. Tiger has a solid record on fast ground (1 from 3) but struggles badly on soft turf and has never won on left-handed galloping tracks like Ayr.
One of few course winners with a victory at Ayr just 19 days ago, and she's clearly building towards something with 1-2-5 across her last three runs. At just three years old she's got scope for improvement, though an 11% career win rate suggests she'll need more time to be reliable.
The editorial pick despite a dire 4% career win rate and no success on any ground type — the bet is built entirely on recent form and fitness. He's placed in 2 of his last 3 runs including a second at this track 50 days ago, but his 0-from-7 record on good ground is a glaring problem for this going.
Best career win rate in the field at 20% (1 from 5) with a fresh victory at Wolverhampton 41 days ago, and he's only three years old so still improving. The worry is that first trainer-jockey pairing and a long gap since that last run, but raw ability looks superior to most here.
Recent form is alarming: 10th at York just two weeks ago after struggling badly there before that. The one bright spot is a love of soft ground (1 win from 3), but he's never won on good turf and the data is thin overall for a four-year-old still finding his feet.
Just broke through for a maiden win at Carlisle 60 days ago at the 17% win rate — one of the better conversion rates in here. But he's 0-from-3 on good ground and hasn't raced in two months, so the layoff combined with unsuitable going is a double problem.
Three straight top-3 finishes including a third here at Ayr just 12 days ago shows she's in form, but she's 0-from-6 on good ground and has never won on right-handed sharp tracks. For a filly winning roughly 1 in 10 races, the going here is working against her.
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner in the field with a victory over this track and distance, and he has a genuine 16% win rate on good ground. But he hasn't won in over two years and looks to be fading, finishing 4th and 3rd at Ayr recently — consistency without spark.
J. Nicholls(3)
·
I. Jardine
· 3yo
· 8st 13lb
· OR 66
HeadgearForm
1.5
Wearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Placed in 2 of his last 3 runs and well-suited to this distance (20% win rate at 1m1f–1m2f), but he's just a three-year-old with 9% career win rate and is 0-from-3 on good ground. Like many in this field, the going is fighting against him despite decent recent form.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (40% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Worst recent form in the field: beaten badly twice at Ayr in the last three weeks before a win at Musselburgh four weeks back. He has a 40% win rate on good ground which is excellent, but the trend is downward and his jockey-trainer combination has never won together.
Lightly raced but deeply worrying: zero wins, zero places from three career races with finishing positions of 9-10-6. This filly has been beaten out of the frame in every outing and is running in the wrong direction; data is too thin and form too poor to back confidently.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Won at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
Six-year-old in freefall with three poor runs on the board and a 6% career win rate — one of the weakest in the field. He's never won on good ground and only manages to win at his specific distance roughly 18% of the time; this is a horse running out of ideas.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.