Natzor

The partnership with jockey Daniel Tudhope is worth noting. In five races together, they have won twice — that is a 40% win rate, which is a remarkable number in a sport where even the very best combinations win less than a third of their races. When Tudhope is in the saddle at Newcastle, something clicks. The horse also has strong preferences around conditions: it has both its wins on normal ground, going 2 from 12 in those conditions (about 1 in every 6 races), and it finds its best form over a mile and three or four furlongs, winning 2 of its 11 races at that trip.

The honest picture, though, is that Natzor has not won in its last six races, and its most recent form figures — 9, 10, 4, 11, 12, 10 — show a horse that is mostly finishing in the middle to back of the field. The last victory came 19 months ago. Most of its races have come in Class 5 company, which is towards the lower end of the racing ladder, where it has won just 1 from 15 (roughly 1 in every 15 attempts at that level). Quinlan's yard has sent out four winners this season, so the operation is ticking over, but Natzor will need to rediscover whatever it finds at Newcastle to add to its tally. It raced just yesterday, so it is very much still part of the picture — the question is whether a return to its favourite track can spark another moment like October 2024.