Newcastle

Placed in two of the last three races but still hunting a second career win from six starts—this 4-year-old is genuinely inconsistent, jumping from 12th to 5th to 10th in its recent runs. Its only victory came at Newcastle back in November, and with just one win from six races, it lacks the proven ability to trouble the favourites.

Won at Newcastle on 29 August 2025 but this 4-year-old is only a 1-from-12 winner overall, struggling badly beyond its optimal 5f-6½f range—this race at 7f is stretching its distance preference. Recent form is undistinguished (4th, 7th, 7th in last three races), and it lacks the proven ability to compete at this level consistently.

Top-rated in the field but drifted massively in the market—Havanagreattime is stepping up two classes after two beatings at Wolverhampton and hasn't won since January 2024. The puzzle is that it wins roughly 1 in 5 races overall, yet recent form suggests it's struggling at this level and jockey Joanna Mason has no track record with trainer Ruth Carr.

Just won 66 days ago at Wolverhampton and shows genuine form on standard-to-slow ground (2 wins from 9), making it a serious contender at a track and in conditions where it performs. However, this 5-year-old has never won at Newcastle in 9 attempts despite this being the type of race and ground it favours, and the long absence between races (40+ days between its last two Newcastle attempts) suggests stability issues.

Winless in six races with no placed finishes, this 3-year-old filly is the weakest profile in the field by a clear margin. A long 79-day absence before its last run at Carlisle (10th place) and recent results (10th, 7th, 4th in the last three) show no upward trajectory—carrying the lightest weight (123lbs) is the only thing working in its favour.

The most experienced horse in the field with 57 races under its belt and a Newcastle specialist with 6 wins from 35 attempts there—that's nearly 1 win in every 6 races at this track, making it genuinely dangerous. However, the latest Newcastle run was a 14th-place beating (25.2L) just 39 days ago, and it hasn't partnered jockey Tom Kiely-Marshall successfully before (0 wins from 5 together).

The biggest concern in the field—absent for 460 days (10 months away) and returning from a long break is always high-risk, particularly as Honved never won in five races before the absence and rates the weakest on ability. The 4-year-old's most recent race was a 12th-place finish at Haydock when he was last active, giving no confidence for an immediate return.