Ayr

Won at Wetherby just over three weeks ago and was second at Thirsk only four days ago — he's clearly in a purple patch of form and runs here fresh off that effort. He wins roughly 1 in 7 races and has placed on nearly half his career starts, making him one of the more reliable competitors in the field. The quick turnaround is worth monitoring, but his recent form makes him an interesting each-way contender.

A third place at Nottingham just 11 days ago shows he's in decent enough nick, and he carries one of the lighter weights in the field. However, he has never won on a left-handed galloping track in seven attempts — and Ayr fits that description perfectly. Consistent enough to hit the frame, but his track record here works against him.

Eighteen races in and his two wins have come on softer ground — on today's dry surface he has zero wins from nine attempts, which is a significant red flag. Recent form makes for grim reading too: sixth, eleventh, and fourth in his last three outings. Stall 4 is a decent draw, but the form and ground stats point firmly against him.

Drawn in stall 1, which historically gives the best chance around this course and distance. Only six races into his career and still learning, but his best form has come on normal or dry ground at around a mile — both boxes ticked today. A distant sixth at Epsom last time out is a concern, but that was a tougher track and he's dropped into a more competitive rating group now.