Windsor

One run, one third-place finish at Wolverhampton nearly two months ago — enough to show something, not enough to draw firm conclusions. Like most of this field, this horse has never raced on dry ground, so conditions today are uncharted territory. At 12-1, the market considers this a live outsider, but the evidence base is very slim.

One run to go on — a fourth-place finish at Wolverhampton nearly two months ago — and drawn in stall 13, which is the worst area of the track at this distance based on historical results. Never raced on dry ground, and the jockey-trainer partnership has yet to win together from nine attempts. There are easier profiles to get excited about in this field.

Also ran at Beverley 18 days ago, finishing seventh — well behind today's favourite Fighter's Spirit in that same race. The one bright spot here is jockey Silvestre De Sousa, who has been in red-hot form recently, winning 6 from his last 14 rides. That's the most compelling reason to take notice, because the form on the page is thin.

Making its racecourse debut today with no form whatsoever to judge — a complete unknown. The breeding is interesting: by Saxon Warrior, who won the 2000 Guineas, one of Britain's most prestigious races for three-year-olds. Jockey Edward Greatrex has been in good form lately with 4 wins from 7 rides in the past two weeks, which is worth noting for a first-time runner.

The most exposed horse in the field for all the wrong reasons — two races, two heavy defeats, finishing 11th and 8th without ever threatening. This is also a horse that has never raced on dry ground, so today brings an unknown on top of an already difficult record. At odds of 300-1, the market has made its feelings clear.

The standout piece of data here is brutal: a 25th-place finish on debut at Newbury, beaten over 52 lengths. That is the worst single result of any runner in this field. At 150-1, the market reflects that, and it is hard to identify a reason for optimism based on what we have seen.

Two races, two finishes outside the top ten — 10th and 11th — and then a seven-month absence before returning here. Drawn in stall 14, the widest draw and statistically the worst position at this course and distance. There is nothing in the form or the market at 300-1 to suggest a turnaround is coming today.

Three races and three poor finishes — 12th, 6th, and 11th — with no wins and no places, and the most recent of those was a well-beaten 11th just two weeks ago. Running in cheekpieces today, which are blinkers covering the side of the eye to help a horse focus — a sign that the team is trying something different to spark an improvement. Drawn in stall 11, which the data suggests is an unfavourable position at Windsor over this trip.

Two races, two modest finishes of 10th and 6th, beaten a long way each time. The one structural advantage is stall 1 — the lowest draw at Windsor has the best historical record at this distance, winning roughly 1 in 7 races. That's a slender thread to hang hopes on, and the form offers nothing else to work with.