Roscommon
·
Paddy Woods Memorial Apprentice Handicap
Starts in
Awaiting result
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
TrackLab Insight
The market has made this the clear favourite, and our editorial verdict calls it the banker of the day — the key detail being that Kakori was hampered and lost ground at Navan last time when finishing sixth, which means that run flatters what actually happened. This horse has never raced on normal ground before, so today's conditions are an unknown, but the support and the eye-catching excuses behind that recent effort are hard to dismiss. Has it all to prove, but fancied to do so.
Never raced on normal ground
Market favourite (5.5)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Trained by the same yard as Stepdance — Henry De Bromhead, who has been in form lately — but Churchwarden returns from six months off the track with one win from 16 career races and recent finishes of 6th, 15th, and 7th that don't encourage. There is zero record of winning on normal ground or on soft ground, covering most of the surface spectrum. Hard to justify ahead of the yard's other runner.
Among the fancied runners (8.0)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
Second-best in the market and one of the joint top-rated horses in the field, Radar Ahead ran a solid race at Navan 16 days ago — finishing third, beaten just half a length — which is the race our editorial tip Kakori was also in. That form is live and relevant. The concern is a high draw in stall 14, where horses win at just a 6% clip at this course and distance, and the record on anything other than normal ground is poor.
2nd in the market (6.5)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The standout data point here is a 40% win rate on normal ground — the best record on today's conditions of any horse in the field — and a 25% win rate at today's 1m 4f trip, both of which point directly to this race. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has had two winners in the last two weeks, showing the yard is in decent nick. The big caveat is a return from nearly six months off the track, and the most recent form figures (8th, 5th, 5th) are not inspiring — but the conditions fit better than almost any other runner here.
Best record on this ground (2 from 5)
Best record at this trip (2 from 4)
Trainer in best form (2 from 15 last 2wk)
TrackLab Insight
The best career win rate in the entire field — winning roughly 1 in every 6 races — makes Daboya stand out on paper, but the last run was a 13th-place finish at Navan and this horse hasn't won since a Thurles victory over five months ago. The jockey is riding this combination for the first time, which adds a layer of uncertainty. Interesting on ability, but confidence is hard to find after that recent display.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
TrackLab Insight
Notably, Forlio has a 20% win rate at the 1m 3f to 1m 4f trip — today's 1m 4f distance sits right in that sweet spot — and a fifth place at Navan 16 days ago represents a reasonable recent effort in a field where several horses ran much worse. The concern is a poor record on normal ground, with zero wins from three attempts on this type of surface. Interesting each-way claims if you can forgive that ground record.
Among the more experienced (25 career races)
TrackLab Insight
One of the more experienced runners here with 21 races, but just a single win to show for it — a rate of roughly 1 in every 20 outings. Returning after nearly seven months off the track, which is a significant fitness question mark, and the record on tracks of this type is poor with zero wins from seven attempts on right-handed galloping courses like Roscommon. Hard to make a case.
Among the more experienced (21 career races)
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced horse in this field with 55 races to its name — the average runner here has had 18 — and there are signs of a revival, with a second-place finish at Dundalk 18 days ago suggesting the spark is still there. However, this horse's best form has come at shorter distances of 7f to 1m, and today's 1m 4f trip looks on the longer side. The jockey-trainer combination has had no wins from 12 attempts together, which is another flag.
Most experienced (55 runs, field avg 18)
TrackLab Insight
Making its racecourse debut today, so there is simply no form to analyse — we are working entirely blind. Drawn widest of all in stall 18, where the data shows horses win just 6% of the time at this course and distance, which is the worst part of the track. A first-time runner with a tough draw in a field of 18 is a big ask; interesting for the future perhaps, but hard to back today.
Racecourse debut
TrackLab Insight
This horse has been off the track for nearly 11 months — the longest absence in the field — and returns with no wins and no place finishes from three career races. Drawn in the lowest stall, which sounds ideal on a track where low draws have a small advantage, but the lack of fitness, form, and experience makes it very difficult to assess. One for the future; too much of a risk here.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Absent 326 days (longest in field)
TrackLab Insight
Rated joint-highest in the field alongside Radar Ahead, but the market has completely turned its back on this one — drifting to 41/1 despite that lofty mark. The recent form is hard to ignore for the wrong reasons: a pull-up and a 15th place in the last two outings, and every win in this horse's career has come on soft or wet ground, not the normal conditions on offer today. Hard to make a case.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
TrackLab Insight
Just four races into its career and still searching for a first win, Bobby Kirova has never raced on normal ground — all previous outings have come on different conditions — so today is an unknown quantity in that respect. The result from Gowran Park 33 days ago isn't listed in the data, which makes it difficult to gauge current form. At 41/1 with a high draw in stall 15, there's very little here to recommend a punt.
Never raced on normal ground
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field of 18 who has already won at Roscommon — scoring here from just two attempts — which is a meaningful edge when most rivals have no course form at all. The draw in stall 4 is also in the sweet spot, where horses win at a reasonable clip compared to the outside berths. The Navan run 16 days ago isn't fully detailed in the data, but the course form alone makes this one of the more interesting runners.
Only course winner (1 from 2 here)
TrackLab Insight
Seven years old with 42 races under its belt, but the recent form has fallen off a cliff — a 20th, a 9th, and a 12th in the last three outings, beaten well on each occasion. This horse does have a decent record on normal ground conditions (winning 1 in 4 on that surface), but the momentum simply isn't there right now. Hard to get excited at 21/1 given that sequence.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
TrackLab Insight
Thirteen races without a win and only one place finish to show for all that effort makes El Regalo one of the harder horses to back in this field. The last two results from Fairyhouse include a pull-up, and the Navan run 16 days ago isn't detailed in the data, leaving form difficult to read. The jockey is riding this combination for the first time, adding further uncertainty.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Your pick
—
—
What you'd get back
—
Odds
—
Bet type
Win (they finish 1st)
How much do you want to bet?
Your bet
£5
Your profit if they win
—
Total back in your pocket
—
How do odds work?
The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
Paid out by the bookmaker, not TrackLab.
Choose your bookmaker