O. Tynan(7)
·
A. Slattery
· 4yo
· 10st 2lb
· OR 59
FreshnessForm
21
Super Value
Quick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The race favourite and the top-rated horse in the field alongside Jasmine Affanalis, Kitty Bear gets a big tick for her draw — stall four sits right in the prime low-draw zone that wins nearly three times as often as the highest draws at this course. She won at Gowran Park just 19 days ago, though she then finished seventh there six days later, and racing again this quickly is a risk worth watching. The editorial team fancy her to run these down if she settles, and at 5/1 she's the one to beat.
Runs again after just 6 daysMarket favourite (5.0)
Wearing tongue strapFresh (87 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Thirteen races in and Profit Surge has yet to win — but she has shown some ability, including two consecutive second-place finishes earlier in her career and a third just over three months ago. She's drawn in stall 9, which sits in the mid-range draw zone that produces fewer winners than the low draws at this track, and her trainer has sent in Colin Keane, one of the more accomplished jockeys in Irish racing. She still needs to find that breakthrough, but she isn't without claims.
Won at this course & distanceWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 3 times
TrackLab Insight
Manhattan Dandy is one of the few horses in this field who has actually won at Roscommon before — a meaningful edge in a field of 18 where course experience is rare. He ran third at Gowran Park just 19 days ago, which is his best recent finish, and his form over the last six runs shows he's been placing more consistently than his win rate of 1 in 20 suggests. The big concern is today's normal ground — he has never won on it in 16 attempts, and all three of his career wins have come on heavier conditions.
Won at this course & distanceWearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The best career win rate in the field at roughly 1 in every 6 races — a genuinely strong record compared to most rivals here. At 10 years old he's the second most experienced horse in the race, and while his recent form has been patchy, he ran a decent fourth at Leopardstown just 26 days ago. He also wears blinkers to sharpen his focus, and today's normal ground conditions are a concern — he has never won on good ground in 8 attempts.
J. Cleary(5)
·
T. Dowling
· 8yo
· 8st 13lb
· OR 42
C&DHeadgear
8.4
Won at this course & distanceWearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Mullacash Buzz has the best record on today's normal ground conditions in the field — 2 wins from 13 starts — and his wider career record of 6 wins and 15 places from 44 races shows a horse that places consistently. He ran fourth at Dundalk just 18 days ago, beaten less than 3 lengths, which is solid recent form. He does wear blinkers to keep him focused, and at 9/1 he's one of the more interesting each-way options in an open race.
Fresh (94 days off)Won 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
Fifty-six races into her career and Morning Approach has won just 3 times — roughly 1 in every 19 outings — and her last three runs have all seen her finish 11th or 12th. She's also drawn in stall 17, which is deep in the high-draw zone that produces the fewest winners at this course and distance. There is very little in the data to encourage a bet here.
Cordouan gets the best possible draw in stall one — right in the heart of the low-draw zone that dominates results at this track — but the form book tells a harder story. His most recent run was a 25th-place finish at the Curragh, beaten nearly 100 lengths, and he has never won on a left-handed or right-handed galloping track, which covers most of the big Irish venues. He's a big outsider at 23/1 for a reason.
Won at this course & distanceWearing visorWon 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
River Derwent has the best record at today's distance of any horse in the field — one win from four attempts over a mile — and his draw in stall 2 puts him right in the prime low-draw zone. He's also shown excellent form on normal ground conditions, winning 3 from 23 starts at around 13%, which stands up well against most rivals here. His last run was a 14th-place finish at Cork 17 days ago, so he'll need to bounce back sharply.
Y. Geerdharry(7)
·
D. Dias
· 3yo
· 8st 7lb
· OR 49
HeadgearForm
4.2
Wearing visorWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Areyousure carries the lowest weight in the field, which gives a small theoretical advantage, but the form book offers almost nothing to work with — four races, no wins, no placed finishes, and a best effort of 8th place. Like Miss Ivor, he has never raced on normal ground before, so today is another unknown. At 29/1, the name feels more like a warning than an invitation.
Carries lowest weight in fieldNever raced on normal ground
At 11 years old, Bucky Larson is the oldest horse in the field and one of the more experienced, with 42 career races to his name. He won last time out at Dundalk, though the exact finishing details from that run aren't available, and his mid-field draw in stall 10 puts him in the least favoured part of the track. Two wins from 42 races is a modest return, and there's nothing in his record to suggest he'll beat the better-fancied rivals here.
Maw Can has the longest absence in the entire field, returning after 249 days off — that's over eight months without a race — and her last three runs all came on British tracks against different competition. She's drawn in stall 18, the deepest high-draw position in the field, which is the worst place to be at Roscommon. Zero wins from 4 career races makes her one of the most speculative chances on the card.
Eleven races in and Straight Back Up has not managed a single win or even a placed finish — a record that puts her among the most winless horses in this already competitive field. Her last run was a 10th-place finish at Dundalk, beaten 12 lengths, and this is the first time the jockey has partnered her for this trainer. She's rated 5lbs below the field average, which confirms how the handicapper views her prospects.
The least experienced horse in the field with just 9 career races, and the record so far is tough reading — no wins, one place, and several finishes deep in the field including a 15th and a 13th in the last two known runs. Drawn in stall 13, he sits in the high-draw zone that produces the fewest winners at Roscommon, and this is the first time this jockey-trainer combination have worked together. Hard to make a case for him at 29/1.
Quick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
One win from 20 career races at around 5%, and his most recent run at Sligo eight days ago didn't produce a finishing position in the data — so it's hard to read his current form with any confidence. He's drawn in stall 6, which is right on the edge of the favourable low-draw zone, but at 41/1 the market has made its feelings clear. There's not much here to suggest an upset.
J. Dalton(7)
·
P. O'Rourke
· 3yo
· 9st 2lb
· OR 58
FreshnessForm
0.7
Fresh (185 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Miss Ivor has never raced on normal ground before — all three previous runs came on different conditions — so today is genuinely unknown territory. She's returning from 185 days off, and her three career runs have produced finishes of 12th, 8th, and 10th, so the form doesn't inspire confidence. At 51/1 she's one of the longest shots in the field, and with so many question marks, that price looks fair.
Never raced on normal groundLightly raced (3 career races)Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.