Forlio

The recent run of results makes for interesting reading. Working backwards from the latest outing, the sequence reads 8-5-10-9-7-1 — a lot of mid-pack finishes before that winning effort. That victory came at Navan in October 2025, and Forlio has raced just once since, finishing eighth. With that race only a day ago, the team at Paul W Flynn's yard in Colehill, Co Longford, will be assessing where things stand. Flynn has had a productive season, sending out 21 winners, which suggests a well-organised operation that knows how to place its horses.

The distance sweet spot is clear: both of Forlio's wins have come over a mile and three or four furlongs, and the record at that trip reads 2 wins from 10 races — a 20% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 5 races at the preferred distance. That is a meaningful number for a horse that wins only 1 in 13 overall. Get Forlio at the right distance and the picture changes considerably.

Colin Keane is the jockey to look for in the racecard. The pair have teamed up six times and won twice together — that's a 33% win rate, or 1 in every 3 races, which is a striking partnership record given how rarely Forlio wins with other riders. When Keane takes the ride, something clearly clicks. Forlio's first career win came at Limerick back in May 2024, so this is a horse that has been gradually finding its feet over two seasons, and the Navan win in October suggests it is still very much in business.