Redcar

The only horse in this field with a win at Redcar, scoring 1 from 3 races here — course experience that none of her 12 rivals can match. The concern is the draw in stall 13, which is in the high band where the data shows just a 1% win rate from over 1,200 races at this course and distance. A sixth-place finish last time out at Pontefract also suggests she isn't in her best form right now.

Both of this horse's career wins have come at Ripon — it has never won anywhere else from 19 attempts at other tracks, which is a stark pattern. Today is at Redcar, not Ripon, so history is working against this one. The blinkers are worn to sharpen focus, but a fourth-place finish last time at Thirsk and a blank record on normal ground in 6 attempts makes this a difficult case to argue.

Flagged as having the best record of any horse in the field on today's normal ground conditions, winning 2 from 7 races on the same surface — a notably stronger return than most rivals can offer on this ground. The problem is stall 12 puts this horse right in the mid-to-high draw range where the data shows a much lower win rate than the lower draws. Two wins from 31 races overall is a modest record, but ground form is genuinely relevant here.

Carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 6lbs below the average — the biggest rating gap of any runner here — which is a real disadvantage in a race where rivals are all closely matched on ability. Finished tenth at this very course just 28 days ago, beaten over 7 lengths. The low weight is a small plus, but the form and rating make this one of the longer shots in the race for good reason.

Still waiting for a first career win after 7 races, and now returns from a 108-day absence — the longest layoff of any horse in this field. The most recent run before that break was a poor ninth, and the jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together from 10 races. Hard to make a case for this one until we see it back in action.

The most experienced horse in the race alongside Straight A, with 35 career races under its belt — but only 2 wins to show for it, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 18 outings. The recent form shows a ninth, seventh and fifth in the last three races, none of which were close. Rated 4lbs below the field average and currently a 23.0 outsider, this is one of the hardest horses in the race to make a case for.

Finished last of 13 runners at Thirsk 38 days ago, beaten over 32 lengths — that is a steep task to recover from. The sole career win came on soft, wet ground at York back in 2023, and this horse has never won on normal conditions in 6 attempts. At odds of 17.0 and with that recent form, there is little in the data to encourage a closer look.

The least experienced horse in the field with just 9 career races, and the recent form makes for bleak reading — eighth, ninth and seventh in the last three outings. That said, this horse's one win came on normal ground, the same conditions on offer today, and it is the least experienced runner here so there may be room to improve. Stall 8 sits in the mid-draw range where the course data is less favourable, adding another obstacle.