Perth

Sun Art only has one win from nine career races, and its best form has come on faster, drier ground — not the slightly soft conditions on offer today at Perth. It has placed in two of its last three outings, so it's in reasonable nick, but it travels up from Fergal O'Brien's yard in England to a Scottish track it hasn't run at before. Not obviously well set-up for this specific test.

The standout fact here is that Follow Charlie has won over this exact course and distance at Perth, making it the only horse in the field that has already proved it can win here — a meaningful edge that the others simply can't match. With 29 races under its belt, it's one of the most experienced runners in the field, and it finished fourth at Perth just 22 days ago, so it's fresh and familiar with the track. The concern is a poor record on soft ground across its career, which today's conditions closely resemble.

Remarkably, this horse finished eighth at Perth just yesterday and is lining up again today — a turnaround of one day is extremely unusual and is the shortest gap of any runner in the field. Its last six runs read 8-8-5-9-5-3, and it has never won on ground like today's across four attempts on soft conditions. Despite being trained by Olly Murphy, who also has the race favourite, this looks a very tough ask.

At 11 years old and with 52 career races, Dalileo is by far the most experienced horse in a field where the average runner has had around 17 outings — but experience alone doesn't win races. It finished seventh at this very course just yesterday, and its record on any kind of soft or wet ground is poor across dozens of attempts without a single win. Carries the lowest weight in the field, but the data gives little reason for optimism.