Perth

On paper, this horse looks exceptional — winning 3 of its 6 career races is the best win rate in the field, and it has a strong record at this distance and in these conditions. The problem is that its last run was a disaster: finished 11th, beaten over 76 lengths, and it hadn't raced for over a year before that. Hard to trust.

One of the more decorated horses in this field with 6 career wins, and he hit a purple patch recently — winning 3 of his last 6 races. The worry is that he has never won on this type of ground or on a left-handed track like Perth, and his odds have drifted sharply, suggesting those in the know aren't confident today.

Crucially, Pure Gold is the only other horse in this field — alongside Just Dottie — to have won over this exact course and distance at Perth, which is a real and specific advantage. However, she finished fifth here just three weeks ago and has no wins from five races on left-handed tracks, so converting that course knowledge into a win is another matter.

Ran here at Perth just three weeks ago and finished second, which makes her the most course-relevant threat outside the favourite's camp. She carries the lowest-rated jockey claim in the race and has no wins from five attempts on this type of ground, so she may need things to go just right.