The editorial nap, and it's easy to see why — Monvoe is the only horse in this field with a winner at Limerick on record, winning here 46 days ago before following up at Leopardstown. Three straight top-three finishes, the lightest weight in the field, and a young horse clearly in the form of its life make this a compelling case. The one flag to note is that the data shows no wins on soft or slightly soft ground from seven attempts, so today's conditions are worth watching — but the confidence behind this selection is hard to argue with.
Carries lowest weight in fieldOnly course winner (1 from 1 here)3 straight top-3 finishesRuns again after just 6 days
This horse has never raced before, making it the biggest unknown in the field — no form to analyse, no patterns to spot, nothing to go on at all. Stepping straight into a race with experienced rivals is a tough ask for any debutant, let alone one in a competitive ten-runner field. Worth watching how it handles the racecourse, but punters are essentially betting blind here.
Wearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeLoves this ground (33% win rate)Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner in this field by a long way — 44 races compared to a field average of 17 — and trainer Gavin Cromwell has been firing, winning 5 from 33 runners in the last fortnight. Earls also has the best record in the field on today's slightly soft ground, winning 1 from 3 outings on similar conditions, and arrives here off the back of three straight top-three finishes. At odds of 6.0, this seasoned campaigner makes plenty of appeal.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)Most experienced (44 runs, field avg 17)3 straight top-3 finishesTrainer in best form (5 from 33 last 2wk)
Wearing visorQuick turnaroundWon 0 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The most remarkable thing about Fast Tara is that this horse is back on a racecourse just three days after finishing ninth at Navan — an unusually quick turnaround. In 27 career races this horse has won just once, roughly 1 in every 27 outings, and the data shows zero wins from six races on soft ground, which is a serious flag given today's conditions. There's a recent placed run at this very track 46 days ago to its credit, but the ground record is very hard to ignore.
Fresh (370 days off)Won 1 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The longest absentee in the field, not having raced for over a year, and crucially has never been tested on today's slightly soft ground. That said, three races and never out of the top two is an eye-catching record for a young horse, and trainer Dermot Weld has hit form with one winner from three runners in the last fortnight. The unknown here is fitness after such a long break.
Never raced on slightly soft groundLightly raced (3 career races)Absent 370 days (longest in field)
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (87 days off)Jockey in form (5 wins in 14 days)Won 1 of last 5Has won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The best-rated horse in the field by some margin, sitting 6lbs above the field average, and the most effective at this trip with two wins from seven races over a mile. However, the last recorded run was a distant 19th at the Curragh, and the odds drifting dramatically tell their own story. Colin Keane is in good recent form, but the form coming in here makes it hard to back with confidence.
Best record at this trip (2 from 7)Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)Jockey in best form (5 from 23 last 2wk)
Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field, sitting 6lbs below the field average, and has never raced on slightly soft ground before — two immediate questions to answer. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to produce a winner together from 17 attempts, which is a notable stat. There is a positive angle in that the horse does have a decent record on softer ground more broadly, winning 1 from 4 on soft, but this is a tough race to bounce back in after an 11th place finish last time out.
Lowest rated, 5lbs below averageNever raced on slightly soft ground
Drawn in stall one, which at this course and distance carries only a 9% win record — no real advantage or disadvantage there. Like today's favourite, this horse has never raced on slightly soft ground, so there's a question mark over how it handles the conditions. The last reported result is missing, leaving a gap in the form picture heading into this race.
Only three career races to assess, which makes this horse one of the less-experienced runners in the field, and the last result from the Curragh 18 days ago is missing entirely. The one win on record came at Dundalk over 500 days ago, so it's been a long wait since the horse last saw a winner's enclosure. There simply isn't enough data to make a strong case for or against.
J. Pietropaolo(7)
·
P. F O'Donnell
· 9yo
· 9st 5lb
· OR 77
HeadgearForm
0.7
Wearing blinkersWon 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
A nine-year-old with 38 races behind him, Dragon of Malta has the experience to get around the track but the recent form is alarming — 13th, 8th, and 15th in the last three outings. Crucially, this horse has never won at Limerick in six attempts, and the data shows zero wins on anything other than very wet, muddy ground, which today's slightly soft conditions may not replicate well enough. At odds of 51, the market has made its feelings very clear.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.