The market favourite and the editorial pick, Lord Aus finished third at Down Royal just 12 days ago and is described as a horse who looked like a winner in the making that day. This step up to a mile and a half is the key talking point — the race analysts believe the extra distance will suit, and a mid-field draw in stall 8 gives a clean passage. Zero wins from four races so far, but the form trajectory and trainer J P Murtagh's powerful combination with Ben Coen make this the horse to beat.
Only three races in, with today's slightly wet ground untested territory, but the trainer Joseph O'Brien has been firing on all cylinders with seven winners in the past two weeks — easily the best form in the yard of any runner here. The jockey-trainer combination of Dylan Browne McMonagle and O'Brien has produced 224 winners together from their races, which is a formidable pairing. At 6.5, this is the second-shortest price in the race, and the market clearly respects what the team might bring out of a lightly raced horse.
Never raced on slightly soft groundLightly raced (3 career races)
Jockey in form (5 wins in 14 days)Trainer in formWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Three races and finishing positions of 15th, 6th, and 12th make for bleak reading, with nothing to suggest a horse on an upward curve. The one genuinely compelling angle is the combination of trainer Ger Lyons — who has won 5 from just 9 runners in the past two weeks, a remarkable hit rate — and jockey Colin Keane, who has also been in strong form. That team has combined for over 200 winners together, so if anyone can unlock this horse, it might be them.
M. Popan(10)
·
K. J Condon
· 3yo
· 9st 5lb
· OR 61
HeadgearForm
9.5
Wearing tongue strapWon 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 16 races compared to the field average of just 5 — and comes in off the back of a win at Killarney last month, her only career victory. She has shown she can win on good ground, with a 1-in-4 record on that surface, but today's wetter conditions are a concern given she has never won on anything slower. At 8.2, she is one of the shorter-priced runners, but the ground question is a genuine risk.
Has more racecourse experience than most in this field and is one of only a handful here to have actually won a race. That win came at Navan two months ago, but a distant sixth at Leopardstown last time out raises questions about whether that form will travel. The odds drifting sharply from near-evens to 12s suggests those who know aren't convinced today.
One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Three races and three finishes deep in the pack — eighth, seventh, and ninth — with no signs of improvement across those outings. Drawn widest of all in stall 19, which is the worst possible position at this course and distance where high draws almost never win. Very hard to make a case for this one based on the evidence available.
Four races and nothing to show for them yet, with finishing positions of fifth, sixth, eighth, and seventh painting a consistent picture of a horse that competes but doesn't threaten. The addition of cheekpieces — a piece of equipment fitted to sharpen a horse's focus — is worth noting as a sign the trainer is trying something new. Gavin Cromwell has been in decent form lately with five winners in the past two weeks, which is the most encouraging angle here.
Regularly finishes fourth or fifth, which means it runs respectably without ever threatening to win — a frustrating profile in a competitive field. Today's slightly soft, wet ground is an unknown quantity for this horse, which has never raced on this type of surface before. Drawn in stall 18, it also faces the same wide-draw problem that hampers several rivals in this race.
Six races without a win, but that third-place finish at Killarney last time out — beaten less than a length — is the most eye-catching piece of recent form in this field. The addition of a visor today is an attempt to replicate or improve on that effort by keeping the horse focused. If that near-miss was a sign of improvement, today's step up in distance could suit.
Only three races into its career, so there is still plenty unknown about this horse. The form so far is modest — a best finish of fourth — but getting beaten by around five lengths in that latest run at least shows it isn't being completely left behind. A high draw in 19 in a race where high draws win just 3% of the time is an immediate problem.
Five races, no wins, no places, and a recent sequence of 10th, 11th, and 12th that shows a horse consistently finishing at the back. Today's slightly wet ground is untested territory, and there's no evidence in the form to suggest conditions will make a difference either way. The draw in stall 7 is in a decent part of the track, but the form gives little reason for optimism.
Three races, three seventh-place finishes — the kind of eerie consistency that tells you this horse is competitive enough but finds a way to finish in the same spot every time. Trainer Henry De Bromhead has been in excellent form with seven winners in the past two weeks, the joint-best record of any trainer in this field. Today is the first time Retro Gal has faced slightly wet ground, so there is a genuine unknown to factor in.
Never raced on slightly soft groundLightly raced (3 career races)Trainer in best form (7 from 25 last 2wk)
Three races, three finishes well beaten — 10th, 7th, and 11th — and there is nothing in the form to suggest a turnaround is imminent. The one positive is the low draw in stall 1, which is in the zone where horses here tend to perform best. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has been in decent recent form, but this horse has given him little to work with so far.
The lowest-rated horse in the field alongside a couple of others, carrying a rating 9 points below the field average — which in a race like this means it is starting at a real disadvantage on paper. Four races without a win or a place, and neither the trainer nor jockey combination has won together in 13 attempts. Very hard to build a case here.
N. Bennett(7)
·
J. P Fahey
· 3yo
· 8st 8lb
· OR 50
Form
2.2
Won 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Carries the best win rate in the field — roughly 1 win in every 7 races — and has shown a genuine liking for distances just short of today's mile and a half, winning at around a mile to a mile and a quarter. The step up to 1m 4f is therefore a question mark, and today's slightly wet ground is untested territory for this horse. The bottom weight and a low draw in stall 2 at least offer practical advantages.
Never raced on slightly soft groundBest career win rate in field (1 in 7)
Quick turnaroundJockey in form (5 wins in 14 days)Trainer in formWon 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Eight races in and still without a win or a place — the longest winless run of any horse in this field. The form figures are consistently poor, with finishing positions of 10th, 7th, and 10th in the last three runs, and an official rating 6 points below the field average reflects that. The jockey J M Sheridan has been riding well lately with 5 winners from 18 rides in the past fortnight, which is the best current form of any jockey here, but that can only do so much.
This horse hasn't raced in 241 days — by far the longest absence of any runner in this field — and returns completely unknown in terms of current fitness. Seven races without a win or a place finish, combined with a trainer and jockey combination that has yet to win together in 16 races, makes this a very difficult horse to support. The wet ground is also untested territory.
Never raced on slightly soft groundAbsent 241 days (longest in field)
Carries the lightest weight in the field, which in theory gives a small advantage, but the form gives no reason for confidence — three races, all finishing 11th or 12th, beaten by 15 lengths or more every time. Today's slightly wet ground has never been encountered before, and the trainer has had no winners in the past two weeks. Honest data, limited hope.
Carries lowest weight in fieldNever raced on slightly soft groundLightly raced (3 career races)
The least experienced horse in the field with just two races to its name, and both of those have seen it beaten well — ninth and seventh across those outings. Rated 12 points below the field average, jointly the lowest in the race, and facing wet ground it has never encountered before. Two races is too small a sample to write any horse off entirely, but there is nothing in the data to encourage confidence here.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below averageNever raced on slightly soft groundLightly raced (2 career races)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.