Earls

What makes Earls interesting is how much he relies on finding the right conditions. He absolutely thrives on wet or muddy ground, winning 3 of his 11 races on such surfaces — nearly 27 per cent — compared to his overall 16 per cent win rate. This is the kind of pattern that shrewd trainers live for: a horse that has a known preference, a reason to run rather than a shot in the dark. His trainer, Gavin Cromwell at Navan, has built one of Ireland's busier yards (96 winners this season) and clearly knows how to find opportunities for horses like this.

Earls is also a course specialist at Roscommon, where he has won 3 of 7 races — a remarkable 43 per cent win rate at that track. His most recent victory came there on 1 September 2024, though that was over a year ago now, and his last six races have been a run of near-misses: 11th place most recently, then second, second, third, seventh, eleventh. Gary Carroll, his regular rider, has won 5 of 24 races together (21 per cent), slightly better than the horse's baseline, suggesting they work well as a partnership. At the top level, Earls has raced four times in Class 2 company and won one of them — decent form for a horse of his age and mileage, though the win came back in April 2024. He is a horse who knows how to win, but seems to be in a quieter phase now.