Bath

A well-travelled veteran with 35 races under its belt, Graffiti actually has a decent record at this distance — winning roughly 1 in 6 at 1m1f-1m2f — but has never raced on ground as dry as this, which is a real unknown. The big red flag is that drifting odds: it opened at 1.1 and is now out at 5.8, which suggests those closest to the race aren't confident. Hard to trust until we see how it handles these conditions.

Second in the market, and its recent Bath form is consistent — second two weeks ago, and it has been running here regularly. The distance suits it on paper, but the ground record is a concern: no wins from five attempts on fast or dry conditions. Second pick in the editorial verdict, but the very dry ground today is the exact type this horse hasn't been able to win on.

This horse has a specific profile that fits today well: it has won over this course and distance, and its best ground record by some distance is on fast, dry ground — three wins from just six runs on firm ground. The concern is a 114-day absence and a string of poor recent finishes, but of all the runners, this one's form book is most tailored to today's very dry conditions.

The course specialist in this field — four wins from 13 races here at Bath is a remarkable record and far better than any rival. The catch is that all of those course wins came on softer ground, and today's very dry conditions are exactly the type where this horse has never won in five attempts. Recent form shows three consecutive fifth or sixth place finishes, so it's in a rough patch.