Simon Whitaker

The headline numbers are honest rather than flashy. This season he has won 4 races from 85 runners, which works out at roughly 1 in every 21 — a 5% win rate that might sound low but actually represents genuine progress. Twelve months ago that figure sat at 3%, so the improvement is real, even if there is still plenty of ground to close on the bigger yards. When you are operating at this level, every percentage point matters.

There are some intriguing wrinkles in the data, though. The last two weeks have been notably sharp — one winner from six runners, a 17% return that is more than three times his seasonal average. Whether that is a genuine upturn in stable form or just a small sample running hot is worth watching. His numbers also tick up on wet or muddy ground, where he wins 1 in every 11 races — nearly double his overall rate. That is a small sample, but it is the kind of edge that patient observers file away for a rainy day, literally.

The partnership figures raise a few eyebrows. Jockey Cam Hardie has been his most-used rider this season with 14 outings together, yet the pair are still looking for their first win as a combination. Likewise, Twilight Dawn has run seven races for the yard without getting off the mark. Neither stat is necessarily alarming at this stage of a trainer's career — horses and jockeys need time to click — but both are ones to keep an eye on as the season develops.

Whitaker is four years in, 28 winners to his name, and the numbers are moving in the right direction. The story here is not one of a trainer at the peak of his powers — it is one of a yard on the way up, and those can be the most interesting ones to follow.