York

The top-rated horse in the field by 3lbs, Point Lynas is the defending winner of this very race and has two wins from four visits to York — a course record that puts him clear of almost every rival here. He also draws the lowest stall, and at a track where low draws win 10% of races compared to just 4% for high draws, that matters enormously. The big question is fitness: he hasn't raced in nearly ten months, and coming back after that kind of break is always a risk, even for a horse of his quality.

Mirsky arrives here in the best recent form of his life, winning at Thirsk just 12 days ago and placing third at Musselburgh the week before that. Trained by David O'Meara, who saddles several runners today, this horse has won 3 of his last 6 races after years of struggling to find a winner. However, he has no wins from four attempts on normal ground, and York's right-handed galloping track hasn't suited him — no wins from seven visits.

The best career win rate in the entire field — winning 4 from just 10 races, or roughly 2 in every 5 — makes First Principle stand out on paper, and he has also won at today's mile trip more than any other distance. Ryan Moore, widely regarded as the best jockey in the world, takes the ride, which adds obvious appeal. The downside is a high draw in stall 17, where the stats at this course and distance are most against a runner.

Walsingham is in the form of his life, winning at Pontefract just 15 days ago and showing four wins from his last six races — a purple patch that is hard to ignore. He has an excellent record on normal ground, winning 3 of his 5 attempts in those conditions, which suits today perfectly. The concern is his record on left-handed, galloping tracks — York is a right-handed, galloping track — and he drops in from a higher class, but at 12.0 he's an interesting each-way possibility.

Among the least experienced in the field with just nine career races, Maybe Not has still managed three wins and a further six placed efforts — a strikingly consistent record for a young horse. A second-place finish at York last summer suggests this track doesn't hold any fears. However, she has no wins on normal ground in three attempts, the race is run on her least favourable surface, and she's returning from a break of nearly seven months.

The second-highest rated horse in the race, Diego Ventura has finished in the top three in every single one of his seven career races — an extraordinary level of consistency for a young horse. His odds have drifted sharply from 21.0 to 36.0, suggesting the market has cooled on him, and like Point Lynas he hasn't raced for the best part of nine months. He also has no recorded win at a mile, with his best distances listed as shorter trips.

Godwinson looked in good shape earlier in the season with two wins at class 2 level, but his last three races have been well below that standard — finishing 5th, 14th, and 12th. He hasn't raced for nearly seven months, and his record on right-handed, galloping tracks like York is a concern: no wins from five attempts. The odds drifting from 26.0 to 34.0 reflects that lack of confidence.

Galeron hasn't won a race in roughly three and a half years, and with only 2 wins from 22 outings his overall record is modest for this level. He finished a close second at Doncaster back in October and has shown he can place in decent company, but his record on normal ground is especially poor — no wins from seven attempts. A high draw in stall 18 is another disadvantage at this course and distance.

Old Cock has actually won at York before — landing a class 2 race here in May 2025 — making him one of the select group of proven course winners in this field. His win rate of 36% across his career is excellent, and his form here specifically gives him a live chance on paper. However, he was beaten over 8 lengths at Newbury last month and finished 14th at York last year, so his form has been patchy, and his odds have drifted badly from 26.0 to 55.0.

One of only a handful of course winners in this field, Thunder Roar ran a fine second at York as recently as last October, beaten just over a length. However, his record on normal or dry ground is a serious red flag — no wins from 11 attempts — and his best form has always come when the ground is wet or muddy, which it isn't today. He's also drawn in the high middle of the field, where the stats are least favourable.

A horse who only truly performs on wet or muddy ground, Theoryofeverything has won 4 of his 13 races in those conditions but has never won on normal ground in eight attempts. Today's conditions are normal, which makes it very hard to be positive about his chances here. His last three runs have all ended in double-figure finishes, and the odds drifting from 41.0 to 51.0 tells its own story.

Duke's Command was beaten over 16 lengths at Epsom just 16 days ago — a very poor showing — and his odds have ballooned from 29.0 to 75.0 as a result. He did win at Lingfield in December, but that came on an artificial surface, and his turf form has been modest. At 75.0 he is priced as an outsider, and recent evidence suggests that rating is fair.

Croupier is one of the few course winners in this field — he won right here at York in May 2023 — but that victory was nearly three years ago, and he has raced just once since then, finishing 11th at Haydock last month. A high draw in stall 16 puts him exactly where the stats say you least want to be. This is a horse returning from what amounts to a two-and-a-half-year absence from proper racing, and that's a very big ask.

The most experienced horse in the field by far — 46 races compared to a field average of 18 — Eldrickjones carries the lightest weight and is rated 11lbs below the field average, reflecting how much lower down the ranks he sits compared to most rivals. He has never won at York in seven attempts and has no wins on normal ground from 13 tries. The only positive is a recent third-place finish at Southwell, but at 65.0 the market is telling a clear story.