The market favourite, and it is easy to see why — this horse has been in the top four in every single one of its three career races, including a win last time out. However, like the horse above it, it has never raced on dry ground before, so today is an unknown. Lightly raced horses can improve quickly, but there is a genuine question here that the price may not fully reflect.
Never raced on dry groundLightly raced (3 career races)Market favourite (2.12)
Won at this course & distanceWon 1 of last 5Won here 2 timesWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field who has actually won over this course and distance — and it has done it twice, both times at Yarmouth. It finished third here just 15 days ago, so it arrives fit, course-proven, and on a track where something clearly clicks. The concern is a zero record from four races on dry ground, which is today's condition.
Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
Carries the lowest weight in the race, which gives it a physical advantage, but the numbers at Yarmouth are damaging — zero wins from six attempts at this track. All three of its career wins have come at Kempton, and it has never won on dry ground, normal ground, or fast ground of any kind — making today's conditions a near-complete blank for this horse.
Lowest rated, 5lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
Wearing tongue strapFresh (236 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
This horse has been off the track for roughly eight months — longer than any other runner here — and has never actually won a race in three attempts. It has shown some ability by placing twice, but returning from such a long break without a win to its name makes this a very difficult one to trust.
Lightly raced (3 career races)Absent 236 days (longest in field)
Wearing hoodWon 0 of last 5Won at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
The editorial verdict picks this one out as a value call after dropping down in grade, but the recent form makes for uncomfortable reading — 15th and 11th in the last two runs. The biggest concern is that its two career wins have never come on dry ground: zero wins from 11 attempts on fast or normal conditions is a serious red flag on a day like today.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fresh (142 days off)Won 0 of last 5Won here 1 timeLoves this ground (50% win rate)Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
On paper this is one of the most interesting profiles in the race — a horse who has won half of its races on dry ground (2 from 4), which is the best record in the field on today's conditions. The catch is a four-month absence, which is a real concern, and its best form has come over slightly longer trips than today's 7f.
Best record on this ground (2 from 4)Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Raced here before
TrackLab Insight
The most relevant recent run in the field belongs to this horse — it finished fourth here at Yarmouth just 22 days ago, so it knows the track and is race-fit. One win from 16 races is a modest overall record, but it has placed six times, suggesting it is often in the mix even if it rarely wins outright.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Won last time out at Newcastle, but its form away from that track is significantly weaker — and today is Yarmouth, not Newcastle. On dry or fast ground it has zero wins from four attempts, which is a problem given today's conditions. Rated 7lbs below the top weight, so at least it is getting some weight relief against the better-fancied runners.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.