Yarmouth

The lowest-rated horse in the field and carrying the lightest weight, which in a race like this can actually be an advantage — less weight means more speed. He won last time out at Chelmsford 122 days ago, so there is a recent victory on the board, and he wins roughly 1 in every 4.5 races, which is a solid record. The unknown is dry turf — he has never raced on it — so today is a step into the unknown for a horse that needs everything to go right.

Four races and not a single placed finish — this is the least experienced horse in the field and has yet to show much on the track so far. More importantly, today's dry turf is completely new territory; all four career races have come on artificial surfaces, so nobody knows how she'll handle these conditions. It's hard to build a case without any evidence to work from.

The best thing about this horse is its record over today's mile trip — two wins from seven races at this distance, which is comfortably its strongest suit. But the last two outings have been poor, including a 25-length beating at Thirsk, and both jockey and trainer have drawn blanks in the last two weeks. The odds drifting sharply from the morning price suggests the market has serious doubts.

Five races in and still searching for a first win or even a placed finish — the record is bare and the recent form, including a 15-length defeat at Pontefract, doesn't encourage. He has raced at Yarmouth once before and managed sixth, which at least means the course isn't completely unknown. With a new jockey on board for the first time today, there's very little to go on.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 32 races compared to a field average of 14 — and crucially has won over this exact course and distance before. But at eight years old and with a last win dating back nearly two years, the form is heading in the wrong direction; the most recent run was a 10-length thumping at Doncaster. Experience is one thing, current form is another.

A distant 10th last time out at Southwell, and the two runs before that were barely any better — this horse has been well beaten in three consecutive races. At 50-1 in the betting, the market isn't expecting much, and her record on today's dry conditions is actually decent (one win from three), but the recent form makes it very hard to make a case. It's also the first time jockey and trainer have paired up, so there's no established understanding to lean on.