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Tonal

There is a horse quietly doing something remarkable at Chelmsford right now, and its name is Tonal. This six-year-old has won 6 races from 25 outings overall — roughly 1 in every 4 — but that number undersells the story. At Chelmsford specifically, Tonal has won 3 from just 5 visits. That is a 60% win rate at a single track, which is the kind of figure that makes even seasoned racing fans do a double take. The most recent of those wins came just two months ago, in March 2026, so this is not a horse living off old glories.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Siyouni
Mother
Oceanique
Owner
Sue Howell
Rating
62

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
25
Career races
6
Wins
24%
Win rate
avg ~10%
44%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The partnership with jockey Ryan Kavanagh is one of the most eye-catching details in the whole profile. In 8 races together, Kavanagh has ridden Tonal to 5 wins — that is winning 5 of every 8 races they have contested as a pair. In a sport where finding a jockey who truly understands a horse can make the difference between winning and finishing mid-pack, that relationship looks genuinely special.

Trained by Ian Williams, whose yard in Portway, Worcestershire, has sent out 96 winners already this season — a volume that speaks to a well-organised, high-performing operation — Tonal tends to compete at the lower end of the class system. Most of its races have come at Class 6 level, which is everyday, bread-and-butter racing rather than the big occasions. That context matters: Tonal is not beating elite horses, but it is doing its job at its level with real consistency. And consistency is rarer than it sounds.

The current form is the other thing worth flagging. Over the last 6 races, Tonal has won 3 of them, finished third once, fifth once, and tenth once. Three wins from six is a purple patch by any measure, and combined with the fact that this horse raced just yesterday, it is clearly in the middle of a hot streak. Normal ground conditions suit it best — across 14 races on a standard surface, it has won 6 times, or roughly 1 in every 2.3 races. The horse does not want soft or heavy ground, which is useful information for anyone paying attention.

Tonal is not a headline horse. It will not be troubling the top races in Britain any time soon. But at its level, on its favourite track, with its favourite jockey — it is quietly one of the most reliable performers around.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on standard ground: 6 wins from 14 starts (43%)
Course specialist at chelmsford: 3 wins from 5 starts (60%)
Effective partnership with Ryan Kavanagh: 62% win rate together
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 4 starts
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to firm (drying out)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good (firm-ish)
Avoids
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
5F – 6½F
Unknown
1M3F – 1M4F
Unknown
7F – 1M
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Loves
Class 6 (grassroots)
Ok
🏟 Track Shape
Long straights
Loves
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
13 May
10th
Great Yarmouth
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 11 runners
7 Apr
5th
Southwell
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 13 runners
12 Mar
🏆 Won
chelmsford
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 8 runners
30 Jan
3rd
Southwell
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 11 runners
2 Jan
🏆 Won
Wolverhampton
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 8 runners
11 Dec
🏆 Won
chelmsford
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 10 runners
1 Dec
2nd
Kempton Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard_To_Slow · 12 runners
31 Oct
🏆 Won
Southwell
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 10 runners
23 Oct
🏆 Won
chelmsford
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 13 runners
14 Aug
8th
Chepstow
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 13 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
Ryan Kavanagh Current Jockey
62.5%
Win rate
5/8
Won / Rode
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Paddy Mathers
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Wolverhampton
Galloping
6 2 wins, 4 other 2 Jan 33.3%
chelmsford 5 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third 12 Mar 60%
Southwell
Galloping
3 1 win, 1 third, 1 other 7 Apr 33.3%
Chepstow
Galloping
2 1 third, 1 other 14 Aug 0%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
2 2 other 13 May 0%
Kempton Park
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 1 Dec 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 5 Jul 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 other 23 Mar 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
1 1 other 20 Apr 0%
Bath
Undulating
1 1 other 6 Jun 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
1 1 other 1 Jul 0%