Ripon

An eight-year-old returning from a six-month absence, which is a significant hurdle in any race. His overall win rate is the joint lowest in the field alongside Modern Times at roughly 1 in 16 races, and he has never won on normal ground or on right-handed tracks like Ripon across his career. The trainer is in decent form right now, but there is a lot working against this horse today.

The most experienced horse in the field with 50 career races, though winning has come rarely — just 5 times from all those outings. His recent form shows consistency without a win, and he has never won on a left-handed sharp track, which does not bode especially well for Ripon. The jockey, Myla Coppins, has had a sharp two weeks with 2 wins from just 4 rides, which is the one encouraging angle.

On paper, the ground and distance stats are impressive — this horse has won 3 from 6 on normal ground and 3 from 9 at this trip, the best figures in the field for both. The catch is that it has not raced for 218 days, the longest absence of any runner here, and the most recent form line includes an unknown result that adds to the uncertainty of a comeback run.

The jockey, Rowan Scott, is the hottest rider in this field right now — winning 5 from 17 rides in the past two weeks, far ahead of anyone else here. The horse itself is tough and experienced across 45 races, and arrives fresh off a win at Leicester just 25 days ago. The draw in stall 10 is less than ideal at Ripon over 6 furlongs, where low draws hold the clear advantage.

No horse in this field knows Ripon like Fortamour — five of his seven career wins have come at this exact course, making him comfortably the most experienced Ripon specialist in the race. The problem is that his last two runs here have produced finishes of 12th and worse, and at ten years old, his most recent form points firmly in the wrong direction. At 23/1, you are betting on the course record rather than the current form.

Carries the lowest weight and is the lowest-rated horse in the field — 9lbs below average — which means he needs to outrun his official mark significantly to get involved. The career win rate of roughly 1 in 5 is actually the best in this field, but that record is deeply misleading right now: his last six runs have all been outside the places, and he has never won on a right-handed track like Ripon across 7 attempts.